Election predictions

With the election just over a week away, let's see your predictions. 

For mine, I am a little sceptical about the expected blue wave. I think the democratic party will retake the house,  but I doubt they will retake the senate.  States like Iowa,  Texas, I think will disappoint the democrats again, so I predict the senate as 50 each.

What do you all think?

Maurice

I think it all depends on MAGA turnout in the red states. I think the DEMS are energized and if the turnout is stifled for the GOP it's going to be a blue wave. We'll know in a little over a week. I don't think Trump is helping the GOP with his rallies. He doesn't say how the GOP will help the working class, he just goes on and on about ballrooms, golf courses , and how the economy is doing so well. I just went grocery shopping and filled up my gas tank and it cost me an arm and a leg and I didn't even buy much at the grocery store. Gas was $4.39/gal for regular, premium was $5.89/gal which my car requires. It went up at least .25 cents a gallon this past week.

Originally Posted by Maurice Clark

With the election just over a week away, let's see your predictions. 

For mine, I am a little sceptical about the expected blue wave. I think the democratic party will retake the house,  but I doubt they will retake the senate.  States like Iowa,  Texas, I think will disappoint the democrats again, so I predict the senate as 50 each.

What do you all think?

Maurice

What's really going to be interesting to see is just how far the Trump administration will go to subvert the midterms. Trump and his cohorts are sending strong signals about what they are up to. In the past, I've ignored the signs as outlandish, since surely no one would ever try what they're reporting. Still, I've been shown so many times now that Trump is completely shameless when it comes to cheating and trampling all over established norms for his personal gain that I'm more inclined to believe what I read these days.

Look at the dubious election lawsuits in California and Alaska. They could have raised those challenges before the election; they are, in effect, legal Hail Marys the administration knows it will lose. But that's not the point; the point is to use the DOJ as the legal wing of Trump's political desires. The move aims to sow doubt and confusion about the election outcomes so they can claim they were cheated and create the opportunity to sow even more chaos after the election, likely with even more post-election challenges. Trump can't just accept a loss; he always has to create a pretext for why he was cheated, and he doesn't care one whit who or what he harms as long as it soothes his ego. He's done this before, so no one should think he won't do it again, and Trump outright said, when he was asked, that he told the DOJ to file the lawsuit in Alaska.

I hope that enough of the electorate has had enough of Trump's "winning," so that Congress changes enough, at least, to cripple the Trump administration for its last two years.

Originally Posted by James Lacey

What's really going to be interesting to see is just how far the Trump administration will go to subvert the midterms. Trump and his cohorts are sending strong signals about what they are up to. In the past, I've ignored the signs as outlandish, since surely no one would ever try what they're reporting. Still, I've been shown so many times now that Trump is completely shameless when it comes to cheating and trampling all over established norms for his personal gain that I'm more inclined to believe what I read these days.

Look at the dubious election lawsuits in California and Alaska. They could have raised those challenges before the election; they are, in effect, legal Hail Marys the administration knows it will lose. But that's not the point; the point is to use the DOJ as the legal wing of Trump's political desires. The move aims to sow doubt and confusion about the election outcomes so they can claim they were cheated and create the opportunity to sow even more chaos after the election, likely with even more post-election challenges. Trump can't just accept a loss; he always has to create a pretext for why he was cheated, and he doesn't care one whit who or what he harms as long as it soothes his ego. He's done this before, so no one should think he won't do it again, and Trump outright said, when he was asked, that he told the DOJ to file the lawsuit in Alaska.

I hope that enough of the electorate has had enough of Trump's "winning," so that Congress changes enough, at least, to cripple the Trump administration for its last two years.

I agree with what Maurice, Jim, and James said.   Not nearly as strident as James though - I think Trump is full of bluster, but not actually affecting reasonable Americans.   I expect a blue wave in the house, and a 51/49 Senate in favor of the

House goes Dem for sure. I didn't think the Senate was possible, but I now think it will fall to the Dems as well.

However, nothing surprises me anymore, so who knows.

Originally Posted by Russ Carroll

House goes Dem for sure. I didn't think the Senate was possible, but I now think it will fall to the Dems as well.

However, nothing surprises me anymore, so who knows.

I'm thinking the same.  If it happens, I hope the Ds don't squander it by wasting the next couple years occupied with endless impeachments and lawsuits.

I guess davis is scared to make a prediction.

Originally Posted by Brian McFarland

I'm thinking the same.  If it happens, I hope the Ds don't squander it by wasting the next couple years occupied with endless impeachments and lawsuits.

100% agree.  I'm not optimistic the D's won't squander their goodwill with endless impeachments and lawsuits.  On the other hand, I totally get it that Congress can not do too much actual legislating without a veto-proof majority, or the white house.  Any impeachment is DOA since at best the Ds will have only a slim majority in the Senate.  The Ds should try to address the economy and foreign affairs though, putting the ball back into Trump's court.  Make him veto popular and reasonable legislation and then coast to victory in 2028.

Originally Posted by James Brown

I agree with what Maurice, Jim, and James said.   Not nearly as strident as James though - I think Trump is full of bluster, but not actually affecting reasonable Americans.   I expect a blue wave in the house, and a 51/49 Senate in favor of the

Aw, common - was the humor too subtle?  

Originally Posted by James Lacey

 Trump can't just accept a loss; he always has to create a pretext for why he was cheated, and he doesn't care one whit who or what he harms as long as it soothes his ego. He's done this before, so no one should think he won't do it again,

and Trump outright said, when he was asked, that he told the DOJ to file the lawsuit in Alaska.

No reasonable person could argue with the first statement I bolded above.  100% agree.

But the second statement needs reconsideration in view of the NYT investigative piece published a few days ago. 

It would really be ironic if an unnecessary, and probably illegal D dirty trick in Alaska cost them the Senate.  Sean Trende had a good analysis of this the other day.  Basically he said that when someone like Trump lies or cheats it does not affect his voters, because they already know he is immoral and a cheater.  However, Mary Petola has characterized herself as an honest person, one who is above partisan skullduggery.  The NYT article, confirming that her campaign and the national campaign actively sought out the second Dan Sullivan might make a difference in this tight race, especially in view of her now totally implausible denials.