Election predictions

Originally Posted by Maurice Clark

Hi James, 

I agree with you that this was a stupid move by Petola's campaign,  and one that can only be detrimental to her election chances.  However,  all the gnashing of teeth and howls of indignation from the Republicans is really hypocritical I feel, since this sort of dirty tricks has been going on for decades. See here for a few examples.  https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2026/Items/Oct30-1.html

In Australia we had similar shenanigans.  We have compulsory voting (you are fined if you do not vote) and voting uses the preferential system. ( what you call ranked choice). Originally candidates were listed alphabetically,  so candidates would change their name before the election in order to appear first on the ballot and so get what we called the "donkey vote". Ie. Those who just numbered the boxes 1,2 3 etc without knowing who the candidates were. That was finally stopped when the electoral commission switched to listing candidates randomly. 

Have fun Tuesday night. Make sure you have plenty of popcorn! 🙃

Maurice

I agree with you and Rod that this dirty trick was small potatoes compared to what’s been done in the past. Patola has positioned herself as an honest politician who would not play these sort of games. If I were an Alaska voter it would matter to me.   probably not enough to vote for a Republican if I was a registered/lifelong Democrat.

Hopefully tomorrow is D day and the beginning of the end of MAGA. Of course, I could be totally off base and trump gets out the vote from his minions, although I also think his minions may be hurting a bit economically and disappointed he did the exact opposite of what he promised he'd do. Hopefully they put the blame where it is due. Besides, trump has been even more a whack job the last few months than he has been in the past. The screamer would be screaming about it if it was Biden saying the crazy things coming out of trump's mouth at his rallies.

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

Maybe---how do you see the Haley Stevens defection--helping or hurting the Democrats in Michigan?

Honestly, she seems like little more than a freak show. I doubt it will have much impact on the election.

Originally Posted by James Brown

I agree with you and Rod that this dirty trick was small potatoes compared to what’s been done in the past. Patola has positioned herself as an honest politician who would not play these sort of games. If I were an Alaska voter it would matter to me.   probably not enough to vote for a Republican if I was a registered/lifelong Democrat.

My understanding is that there is a top-2 runoff if no candidate gets more 50% of the vote, so it seems immaterial to me.

Originally Posted by Russ Carroll

My understanding is that there is a top-2 runoff if no candidate gets more 50% of the vote, so it seems immaterial to me.

Hi Russ,

I don't think this is the case since Alaska uses ranked choice voting. If no candidate has over 50% in the first count, the votes for the lowest candidate are distributed to the other candidates according to their second preference. 

This continues until only 2 candidates remain, at which point one of them must have over 50%. 

Cheers 

Maurice

Originally Posted by Maurice Clark

Hi Russ,

I don't think this is the case since Alaska uses ranked choice voting. If no candidate has over 50% in the first count, the votes for the lowest candidate are distributed to the other candidates according to their second preference. 

This continues until only 2 candidates remain, at which point one of them must have over 50%. 

Cheers 

Maurice

I think that would still work out about the same.

One final prediction:

I think we may be watching history repeat itself in today's election, and Republicans should be very concerned about the long-term consequences.

Remember California's Proposition 187?

In 1994, Republican Governor Pete Wilson embraced an initiative to deny public education and other government services to illegal immigrants. The proposition passed overwhelmingly, and Wilson won reelection.

But Republicans paid a terrible long-term political price. Hispanic voters increasingly abandoned the party, helping transform California from a competitive state into one dominated by Democrats. More than 30 years later, Republicans still haven't recovered.

Fast forward to 2024. Trump made remarkable gains among Hispanic voters, receiving 48% of their vote, nearly matching Harris. It was an enormous opportunity for Republicans to build a lasting political coalition.

Instead, Trump has pursued an immigration crackdown that has gone well beyond what many of those voters thought they were supporting.

There is a huge difference between securing the border and making millions of American citizens feel that their families and communities are under attack.

And the polling shows it. A recent Pew survey found that Trump's approval among Hispanic voters has fallen to just 24%.

Today's election may be remembered as the beginning of another Proposition 187 moment, this time on a national scale.

Pete Wilson won his election in 1994, but his party lost a generation of voters.

Trump is about to accomplish the same thing.

Could be an interesting day/night. Are the polls correct or not? Either way, I hope you all have plenty of popcorn!

Originally Posted by Russ Carroll

My understanding is that there is a top-2 runoff if no candidate gets more 50% of the vote, so it seems immaterial to me.

You bet, totally immaterial as far as the actual mechanics of the election goes.  makes you wonder why the Democratic operatives went to such lengths to pull such a stunt.

In view of Alaska’s ranked choice voting, and the clear marking of the real Dan Sullivan as the Republican and incumbent, it seems to me that the risk of this dirty trick backfiring for some voters is greater than any possible benefit.

Are the political operatives who implemented this particular dirty trick that stupid? It seems so.

Originally Posted by Jim Moscheck

Hopefully tomorrow is D day and the beginning of the end of MAGA. Of course, I could be totally off base and trump gets out the vote from his minions, although I also think his minions may be hurting a bit economically and disappointed he did the exact opposite of what he promised he'd do. Hopefully they put the blame where it is due. Besides, trump has been even more a whack job the last few months than he has been in the past. The screamer would be screaming about it if it was Biden saying the crazy things coming out of trump's mouth at his rallies.

I think the Republicans will be crushed by the Democrats tomorrow. I’d like to think it will be the end of MAGA, but it’s not going to be.   Populism is on the rise in the US and Europe both.  Our brand of right wing populism is MAGA of course, but the left-wing populist DSA is going to have a very big night tonight.   I’m afraid MAGA sentiment is going to be energized, and back and full force in 2028.   The left and right fringes seem to be in control.

For example, I think this forum is extremely moderate, with the obvious exception of Richard.  Within the last week or so we have pretty much unanimously agreed the new Democratic majority in Congress ought to spend its time focusing on the economy and rational foreign affairs, rather than futilely impeaching Trump and threatening prosecution. We’ll see, but I doubt that is how the next two years go down.

People like you and me, moderate left and right wingers probably still control the elections, but we are a long way from being able to set any agenda.