Election predictions

Originally Posted by James Brown

100% agree.  I'm not optimistic the D's won't squander their goodwill with endless impeachments and lawsuits.  On the other hand, I totally get it that Congress can not do too much actual legislating without a veto-proof majority, or the white house.  Any impeachment is DOA since at best the Ds will have only a slim majority in the Senate.  The Ds should try to address the economy and foreign affairs though, putting the ball back into Trump's court.  Make him veto popular and reasonable legislation and then coast to victory in 2028.

OK here's an idea suitable for Hollywood - how about Vance working backstage, Kevin Spacey style from the first few seasons of "House of Cards" to flip enough R Senators to convict Trump after the impeachment?  He'd probably need to flip 16 or 17 Republicans.  Surely that many hate Trump privately?  Then, Spacey - oops, I mean Vance, would be president for almost two years and get to run as the incumbent in '28.  Could happen!  I'm working on the screenplay.  

Originally Posted by James Brown

No reasonable person could argue with the first statement I bolded above.  100% agree.

But the second statement needs reconsideration in view of the NYT investigative piece published a few days ago. 

It would really be ironic if an unnecessary, and probably illegal D dirty trick in Alaska cost them the Senate.  Sean Trende had a good analysis of this the other day.  Basically he said that when someone like Trump lies or cheats it does not affect his voters, because they already know he is immoral and a cheater.  However, Mary Petola has characterized herself as an honest person, one who is above partisan skullduggery.  The NYT article, confirming that her campaign and the national campaign actively sought out the second Dan Sullivan might make a difference in this tight race, especially in view of her now totally implausible denials.

It's both ironic and, of course, hypocritical, that Trump and his minions advance and extoll the NYT for their article when they otherwise spend their time diminishing anything they print that they don't like.
That said, the GOP has used the same tactic on multiple occasions. They learn it from them. It also doesn't surprise me that in Alaska, you don't bring a spoon to a knife fight...

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

It's both ironic and, of course, hypocritical, that Trump and his minions advance and extoll the NYT for their article when they otherwise spend their time diminishing anything they print that they don't like.
That said, the GOP has used the same tactic on multiple occasions. They learn it from them. It also doesn't surprise me that in Alaska, you don't bring a spoon to a knife fight...

Oh, and surprise, surprise: "Over 40% of names on DOJ list of alleged noncitizens(in Calif) are not on Calif voter rolls, analysis finds"  "The analysis also found that thousands of U.S. citizens appear to be flagged as ineligible to vote on the government’s list."

https://apnews.com/article/california-justice-department-noncitizen-voters-midterms-45b31d5aefb03723f0e59f6084e918d4

Reminds of the Trump government doing this in Nevada :  "The federal government said 15,903. The answer was zero."  

"In July 2026, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) sent a letter to Nevada Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar (D) claiming that as many as 15,903 noncitizens were on Nevada's voter rolls. The Department of Justice (DOJ) sent letters to election officials in all 50 states the same week, threatening criminal prosecution. The message from Washington was clear: Nevada's elections were compromised and federal action was warranted."  "None of it held up."

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/opinion-the-federal-government-said-15903-the-answer-was-zero

But, what's that compared to a couple of candidates with similar names in Alaska?

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

Oh, and surprise, surprise: "Over 40% of names on DOJ list of alleged noncitizens(in Calif) are not on Calif voter rolls, analysis finds"  "The analysis also found that thousands of U.S. citizens appear to be flagged as ineligible to vote on the government’s list."

https://apnews.com/article/california-justice-department-noncitizen-voters-midterms-45b31d5aefb03723f0e59f6084e918d4

Reminds of the Trump government doing this in Nevada :  "The federal government said 15,903. The answer was zero."  

"In July 2026, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) sent a letter to Nevada Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar (D) claiming that as many as 15,903 noncitizens were on Nevada's voter rolls. The Department of Justice (DOJ) sent letters to election officials in all 50 states the same week, threatening criminal prosecution. The message from Washington was clear: Nevada's elections were compromised and federal action was warranted."  "None of it held up."

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/opinion-the-federal-government-said-15903-the-answer-was-zero

But, what's that compared to a couple of candidates with similar names in Alaska?

I think you are missing the point.  Trump's legendary BS about widespread election fraud six years ago was entirely and definitively disproven six years ago.  He’s at it again and he is scum.  No doubt he'll resort to the same old lies about election fraud when his party loses the House and Senate Tuesday.  There is nothing comparable about the magnitude of Trump's lies and Petola's lies at all.  

But, Petola is locked in a tight race for a Senate seat that matters a lot.  If she loses it because of her campaign's malfeasance, and if that matters for a Senate majority...  Well then, I think ironic is the right word.  We'll see tomorrow, or maybe next week - Alaska is notoriously slow.

Abdul El-Sayed is going down in Michigan. Not because the Democrat he ran against endorsed Mike Rodgers. It is because he could not answer a very simple question: Who is a greater danger to the US, Israel or Iran?

Originally Posted by James Brown

I think you are missing the point.  Trump's legendary BS about widespread election fraud six years ago was entirely and definitively disproven six years ago.  He’s at it again and he is scum.  No doubt he'll resort to the same old lies about election fraud when his party loses the House and Senate Tuesday.  There is nothing comparable about the magnitude of Trump's lies and Petola's lies at all.  

But, Petola is locked in a tight race for a Senate seat that matters a lot.  If she loses it because of her campaign's malfeasance, and if that matters for a Senate majority...  Well then, I think ironic is the right word.  We'll see tomorrow, or maybe next week - Alaska is notoriously slow.

Breaking news: "Judge tosses DOJ’s lawsuit over Alaska Senate race":   https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/6186982-judge-dismisses-trump-alaska-lawsuit/

Hopefully, any undecideds at this point in Alaska will see this for what it was: another bogus move by Trump folks to sway the election...

Originally Posted by Russ Carroll

Abdul El-Sayed is going down in Michigan. Not because the Democrat he ran against endorsed Mike Rodgers. It is because he could not answer a very simple question: Who is a greater danger to the US, Israel or Iran?

Maybe---how do you see the Haley Stevens defection--helping or hurting the Democrats in Michigan?

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

Breaking news: "Judge tosses DOJ’s lawsuit over Alaska Senate race":   https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/6186982-judge-dismisses-trump-alaska-lawsuit/

Hopefully, any undecideds at this point in Alaska will see this for what it was: another bogus move by Trump folks to sway the election...

Doesn't the Petola campaign's dirty trick bother you at all?  Imagine you were an undecided in Alaska who craves an honest politician.

Originally Posted by James Brown

Doesn't the Petola campaign's dirty trick bother you at all?  Imagine you were an undecided in Alaska who craves an honest politician.

Assuming it's true and it's not just another hit piece from a "leftist" newsite, albeit on what some may call a "leftist", in the Trump era, it barely registers on the Richter scale. In other words, if this was a repeat of Republican dirty trick by another Republican, the NYT would be quickly belittled for its story and threatened with a defamation suit.  That said, the Alaska supreme court says the two Sullivans can be on the ballot with the distinction being the sitting Republican will be listed as the incumbent which is more than sufficient to clear up the confusion. Trump, for his part, says that you have to have an IQ of 190 to know what an incumbent is...

The Republican Alaska AG held a news conference the other day and he seemed to be saying a lot without much of saying anything. He talked about probing alleged "crimes"  but, when queried by reporters, he refused to state what those supposed crimes happen to be despite holding a news conference to talk about his probe of them. So, until I see specific charges of wrongdoing here, not to mention Petloa has denied the report from the NYT, but, if the allegation proves to be true, then I'd agree with the opinion expressed in this article that she issue an apology which is someting Trump or his fellow Republicans ever do when they pull a similar stunt:  https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/oct/30/mary-peltola-dan-sullivan-alaska

Originally Posted by James Brown

Doesn't the Petola campaign's dirty trick bother you at all?  Imagine you were an undecided in Alaska who craves an honest politician.

Hi James, 

I agree with you that this was a stupid move by Petola's campaign,  and one that can only be detrimental to her election chances.  However,  all the gnashing of teeth and howls of indignation from the Republicans is really hypocritical I feel, since this sort of dirty tricks has been going on for decades. See here for a few examples.  https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2026/Items/Oct30-1.html

In Australia we had similar shenanigans.  We have compulsory voting (you are fined if you do not vote) and voting uses the preferential system. ( what you call ranked choice). Originally candidates were listed alphabetically,  so candidates would change their name before the election in order to appear first on the ballot and so get what we called the "donkey vote". Ie. Those who just numbered the boxes 1,2 3 etc without knowing who the candidates were. That was finally stopped when the electoral commission switched to listing candidates randomly. 

Have fun Tuesday night. Make sure you have plenty of popcorn! 🙃

Maurice