I gleaned this from the internet, so I can't vouch for its accuracy, but it seems reasonable:
Length of the past 5 conclaves:
Pope Pius XII: 1 Day; 3 Ballots; elected 3/2/39
Pope John XXIII: 3 Days; 11 Ballots; elected 10/28/58
Pope Paul VI: 2 Days; 6 Ballots; elected 6/21/63
Pope John Paul I: 1 Day; 4 Ballots; elected 8/26/78
Pope John Paul II: 2 Days; 8 Ballots; elected 10/16/78
However, John Paul II instituted an important rule change:
"To be elected Pope, one Cardinal must receive more than two-thirds of the votes. Except that, under the new rules established by Pope John Paul II, if 30 ballots have taken place without any Cardinal being elected Pope, then the Cardinals may then elect by simple majority. This is an important change and may well be the most important change made. In the past, it has often been the case that a particular candidate has had solid majority support but cannot garner the required two-thirds majority, eg, because he is too conservative to satisfy the more moderate Cardinals. Therefore a compromise candidate is chosen, either an old Pope who will die soon and not do much until the next conclave (which is what was intended with John XXIII!) or someone not so hard-line wins support. The difference now will be that if, in the early ballots, one candidate has strong majority support, there is less incentive for that majority to compromise with the cardinals who are against their candidate and they simply need to sit out 30 ballots to elect their man. This may well see much more "hard-line" Popes being elected, and given the conservative trend of most appointments to the College by Pope John Paul II, it is almost certainly going to be a man cut from the same cloth. There will also be far less incentive for the Cardinals to finish quickly as in the past. After such a long papacy, they may need time to arrive at a strong consensus on what type of papacy the Church now needs. They will also be staying in comfortable lodgings, rather than sleeping in foldaway cots in hallways and offices in the Sistine Chapel.
The cardinals vote on the afternoon of the first day, then twice each morning and once each afternoon. If they have not elected someone within the first nine votes, then they may devote up to a day to prayer and discussion before resuming. They may do the same every seven unsuccessful votes after that. The Cardinals are not permitted any contact with the outside world: no mobile phones, no newspapers or television, no messages or letters or signals to observers. There will be regular sweeps of all relevant areas for listening devices. The Cardinals will for the first time be visible, at least twice daily, to the observing world, when they move the 350 metres from the Domus Sanctae Marthae to the Sistine Chapel and back again. No doubt, Vatican "experts" will be hired to expound at length on what the countenance of certain key Cardinals indicates as they are filmed moving to and from the Chapel!"
http://www.catholic-pages.com/pope/election.asp
I must say, that as a Catholic, I find the intense media coverage and high interest of non-Catholic persons kind of wierd. Why do you all care who is Pope? We here in the states by and large don't follow other international elections nearly this closely.
- Jim -
p.s. Darrell: The Holy Spirt is merely toying with the media. When the Holy Spirit is ready, the Cardinals will listen.
