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Posts Made By: James C Chandler Jr

November 21, 2009 09:28 PM Forum: Politics

Cramdown 2 on CSPAN

Posted By James C Chandler Jr
Then nature or 'feel' of the Senate debate is lower-key than the House show.

The way it is organized with a "host" senator doing dialog with friendly ally senators, is reminiscent of a mix of infomercial, telethon, and Oprah expose .

November 23, 2009 09:42 PM Forum: Politics

Help Bail Out the USA!

Posted By James C Chandler Jr
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20091112/us_nm/us_usa_economy_budget_gifts

I wonder, if everybody dug deep and sent the Treasury a Christmas gift to pay off the debt (or just the year's interest on the debt)---

If everybody did that, it would inspire congress to quit squandering money, wouldn't it? Surely they would quit squandering money if we would dig down and give generously?

http://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/ir/ir_expense.htm

December 4, 2009 05:40 AM Forum: Global Warming - REAL or NOT

Evaluation of Computer Models

Posted By James C Chandler Jr
Is there a link to download recent evaluation of computer models against current climate?

A few months ago found a PCMDI document from about 2002 which appeared to compare various models against the real measured climate up to about 2001. Unfortunately didn't download a copy. It was very detailed, but the only metrics were correlations of various parameters.

My old psych profs would NEVER have accepted a research paper whose numerical analysis only consisted of correlations and pretty color graphs, and Psychology ain't even a proper science! Hey, its trying to be a real science, but its a tough problem to get a handle on. Bless its pointy little head.

Downloaded "An Appraisal of Coupled Climate Model Simulations" UCRL-TR-202550 August 16, 2004. As best I can tell, it is an 'inside baseball' document mainly fixated on comparison of different models rather than a comparison against real climate. Maybe the comparison against real climate is buried in there somewhere.

There is supposed to be a similar PCMDI doc from 2007, but haven't found it so far.

I'm too cheap to buy papers, and too lazy to join groups to get access to this stuff that is paid-for by my tax dollars . Got plenty to do just doing my work and petting the dawgs. But if I could download some papers could probably find time to read them.

All the 'inside baseball' stuff is fine and fascinating about the sim climate. If yer career involves making the computer-earth have similar global climate patterns to a real earth... But doesn't anyone run simple comparisons testing old model predictions against current measurements?

This article:

http://www.inscc.utah.edu/~reichler/publications/papers/Reichler_07_BAMS_CMIP.pdf

It was done in 2007, but seems to evaluate datasets from some years past, and of course this particular pdf is stripped of the graphics.

===

Ferinstance, if Hansen can come up with one number per year for the global temperature, then surely they can derive such a yearly global number from each model?

Heck, split it into quarters spread over 20 years. Make a 2D simple T-Test, reality-vs-model 1999 generated models. 80 quarters spanning from 1989 to 2009. That is enough of a data sample for a quasi-reliable T-Test. Or split it out by month for 240 data-pairs. Does it test statistically significant with p < 0.05?

If they wanna spend trillions of dollars to avoid catastrophe 10 years in the future, wouldn't it be nice to know if the prediction is anywhere in the ballpark comparing 2009 real climate against the 1999 predictions? How is this too simple-minded for them smart climatologist fellers?

If such studies have never been published, then a paranoid person would suspect that the reason they don't go simple-- The reason they bury it in 99 colorful charts with 0.9 to 0.95 correlations-- They really ain't got nothing statistically significant yet and just trying to bury the fact in data? I'm not paranoid, but OTOH simple evaluative analyis ain't that difficult. Them smart fellers could probably figger out how to do a 2-D T test. Anybody doing simple analysis like that? Links?

December 16, 2009 12:09 AM Forum: Religion

Finally missed a fundraising target?

Posted By James C Chandler Jr
In 1987 Oral Roberts announced on TV that he needed $8 million by March or God was gonna call him home.

Luckily Roberts made the fundraising target in 1987 and presumably afterward, but the collection plate must have gone dry this fall!

December 24, 2009 08:35 AM Forum: SCI-FI

Outer Space Astronauts

Posted By James C Chandler Jr
SyFy "Outer Space Astronauts" is pretty amusing tripe so far. Not as good tripe as "Tripping the Rift" and certainly can't hold a candle to to the classic "Lexx", but OTOH it is head-and-shoulders above such tripe as "Mansquito" or "Ghost Hunters".

January 10, 2010 04:31 PM Forum: Politics

Brown vs Coakley

Posted By James C Chandler Jr
Peoples Republic of Massachusetts might have a horse-race shaping up. Long shot.

Polls are all over the map.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MA_45398436.pdf

http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2010/01/10/senate_poll_coakley_up_15_points/

Boston Globe poll may be wishful thinking, or maybe ground truth. Dunno if Public Policy Polling has an agenda. Huffington Post had an article referencing both polls, and didn't have bad words to say about Public Policy Polling, which might 'read between the lines' that Public Policy Polling is not ridiculously partisan. Huffington would have certainly mentioned any bias in a disappointing poll result.

RCP doesn't have any additional info at this moment.

http://realclearpolitics.blogs.time.com/2010/01/09/upset-in-the-making-brown-leads-coakley-in-ma-sen-poll/

January 18, 2010 02:38 AM Forum: Off Topic Discussions

Is Orion just an unfunded pipe dream?

Posted By James C Chandler Jr
As it has been 40 years since the first Apollo landing, will USA astronauts return to the moon within the next 40 years? Except possibly as hitch-hikers on Chinese or Indian moon missions?

Perhaps the USA will never find it politically expedient to commit sufficient resources to another manned moon mission until all Earthly problems have been solved? In that case, since Earthly problems are likely to continually worsen rather than improve, does this imply that we will never return?

Maybe if tech advances would make near-earth space travel dramatically less expensive, then it might be a no-brainer for a private enterprise? But as long as manned space missions remain so expensive that only the Feds can afford it, will we ever let loose the bucks to make it back to the moon?

January 23, 2010 03:12 AM Forum: Pet Pics

Saluda Coon Dog Days

Posted By James C Chandler Jr
Wife's friend told her about the Saluda Coon Dog Days (Saluda NC). Since we have a couple of rescued 'citified' coonhounds, it was a no-brainer to google Saluda. Our hounds don't have to work for a living, though they think it is a sacred duty to tree cats and squirrels and sing in harmony.

Google recovers quite a few folksy pictures, though the Saluda event apparently is not excessively famous on the internet.

The parade includes anybody who decides to participate, and here is the Drill Team:



Cute bluetick pup:



Dignified:



And this 1967 newspaper clip is neat. It has a picture of a Treeing Walker participating in the treeing contest, who barked 64 times in one minute. The fellow looks like he's jumping at least 3 feet off the ground. My guys will do that if they have a cat treed. They get real excitable in the presence of furry critters up a tree.

http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1665&dat=19870712&id=zH40AAAAIBAJ&sjid=QyQEAAAAIBAJ&pg=6431,2254643

January 24, 2010 03:13 PM Forum: Politics

Its Not About Me

Posted By James C Chandler Jr
A 6 minute clip from 01-22-10:

http://www.cnn.com/video/data/2.0/video/politics/2010/01/22/bts.obama.remarks.Pool.html

Counting the set of self-references ["I", "Me", "Obama"], there are 23 self references in the first 3 minutes. But in the final three minutes BHO launches into an explanation, "Its Not About Me" containing 35 self-references!

7.67 self-references per minute at the beginning, rising to 11.67 self-references per minute as he explains "Its Not About Me". Remarkable. On average, one self-reference per 5.14 seconds while explaining "Its Not About Me." Remarkable.

March 3, 2010 01:02 PM Forum: Politics

Tara Dowdell

Posted By James C Chandler Jr
Tara Dowdell is a frequent Fox news ultra-liberal guest who ranks right up there along with uber-conservative Michelle Malkin or newsbabe Lauren Sivan in the cutes department.

http://www.taradowdell.net/bio.html




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