Posts Made By: Rod Kaufman

Originally Posted by James Brown

No offense was taken!  Thanks though.  I simply missed the sarcasm in context and it seemed beneath you.

I am indeed frustrated that Rod can not appreciate that many pro-life advocates have sincere motivations that have nothing to do with dominating or hurting women.

"I am indeed frustrated that Rod can not appreciate that many pro-life advocates have sincere motivations that have nothing to do with dominating or hurting women."

Having sincere motivations regarding life beginning at conception is one thing. Foisting that believe with its morals and/or religious convictions upon others is quite another. It's the latter I object to along with the deadly consequences it creates ...

"President Trump has said he plans to install a blanket tariff of 10% to 20% on all imports, with additional tariffs of 60% to 100% on goods brought in from China."

"Economists, however, tend to agree that such a plan would would have the effect of raising prices on everyday goods. "If President Trump raises tariffs on imported goods, it means inevitably that American consumers are going to pay more," Howard Gleckman, senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, told CNBC."

"Ultimately, the cost of tariffs will be paid by us, the consumer," says George Ball, chairman of investment management firm Sanders Morris. "They'll be buying things at higher prices than they otherwise would."

"And effectively, what that does is create a situation where both impacted countries are seeing this government intervention. It tends to lead to higher prices for consumers in both countries."

https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/business/money-report/trumps-tariff-plan-why-hes-pushing-for-them-and-how-they-might-end-up-raising-prices/3555581/

You think we're paying high prices now? Just wait until the Trump plan takes effect...

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

Yes, the leftist Brookings Institute has been full of shit for a long time, and they still are.

Trump's tariffs caused no inflation last time and they won't this time.

When Trump was in office, the inflation rate was around the 2% target rate and Biden was handed an inflation rate of 1.4%.

That's a fact and that is what Biden got on Jan 20, 2021.

He ramped it up with his asinine, irresponsible, out of control spending which hit 45 year highs.

Brookings is just another FEAR MONGERING leftist bastion of progressive loser economists who lie about everything and try to scare DUMB Americans like you, and DUMB Americans like you believe their bullshit.  

You didn't even know that the inflation rate was at Fed target levels and virtually anyone who really has investments in the market knows that's how the Fed decides whether or not to raise or lower interest rates as it did today. And, the latter, of course, is a critical factor affecting market response.
The one who is really full of it here is, of course, you.

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

Really?  When did the inflation rate REACH target levels DS?  Just last week, the CORE inflation rate was at 3.3%.  

That's still 1.3% above target inflation rate.  

When did tariffs put on China during the Trump administration from 2017 to 2021 cause inflation to rise?

Be specific DS.

Obviously you don't keep up on current events or on the Feds measure of inflation:

"The Wall Street investment bank Friday projected that the Commerce Department’s personal consumption expenditures price index for September will show a 12-month inflation rate of 2.04% when it is released later this month."

"  ... that number would get rounded down to 2% and be right in line with the Fed’s long-held objective, a little over two years after inflation spiked to a 40-year high and unleashed an aggressive round of interest rate hikes." "The Fed prefers the PCE as its inflation gauge though it uses a variety of inputs to make decisions."

"Goldman’s projection that the PCE index is heading to 2% is also about in line with tracking from the Cleveland Fed."

"The central bank district’s “inflation nowcasting” dashboard pegs the 12-month headline PCE rate at 2.06% for September, which would get rounded up to 2.1%. However, on an annualized pace, inflation for the entire third quarter is running at just a 1.4% rate — well below the Fed’s 2% goal."


"Core inflation, which excludes food and energy and is a metric that the Fed considers a better measure of longer-term trends, is expected to run at a 2.6% annual rate for the PCE in September, according to Goldman. Using just the consumer price index, core inflation was even worse in September, at 3.3%."

"Fed officials, though, see the unexpectedly high shelter inflation numbers as a major driver of the core measure, which they figure will ease as a lower trend in rents works its way through the data."

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/11/the-federal-reserve-may-have-pretty-much-just-hit-its-2percent-inflation-target.html

Oh, and your deductible on the bronze plan amounts to about a third or less of a day's stay in the hospital...

Originally Posted by Russ Carroll

I talked to the guy who manages my assets at JP Morgan wed morning. He has been telling me for some time Trump would win, and the market will roar. He actually is not at all naive about Trump when I ask him specifics about how Trump will impact the economy. Yes, ANY self-respecting expert/advisor worth ANYTHING will tell you tariffs are inflationary and a tax. What he said was that Trump's not likely to do nearly what he said about tariffs in practice, and even if he did, the tax code changes will more than make up for it in terms of growth. Yes, he said there will be winners and losers in all of this, but he's very confident that the market has got a bull run in store over the next few years. Obviously, no market is without volatility, but the trend will be significantly up in his view. He could put our money to work on pretty much anything, but US equities are a favorite of his right now. This is a guy that will soon become President of JP Morgan Wealth Management, so ignore him at your own peril.

Ya mean, we shouldn't be listening to Davis?!

Hmm, given how Trump is reportedly shaping his cabinet, (think Rocky Mountain Horror Show), his "vision of "his great big beautiful tariffs" could very well take place, and damn the ramifications.  And, unless you're referring to the tax cuts being made permanent for corporate America, I'm not sure which changes in the tax code you're referencing here. 

What I'd like to see is a longer overdue lowering of the capital gains tax. The 15-20% standard is nuts and way too high particularly for individual investors in retirement type age frames.

Originally Posted by James Brown

I've got the future president of JP Morgan Wealth Mgmt. and more importantly James Lacey and presumably you agreeing with me, so maybe my optimism that Trump won't/won't be allowed to implement draconian tariffs is not naive after all.  Fingers crossed.  Thanks for sharing these insights.

Well, the companies themselves are taking Trump at his word:

Nov 7th: "Companies Are Already Warning of Price Hikes From Trump Tariffs":

"Steven Madden Ltd. is accelerating plans to shift production out of China after Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election raised the odds of increased tariffs on imported goods."

"The shoe retailer now aims to reduce goods manufactured in China by 40% within the next year, up from its prior target of a 10% reduction.

“As of yesterday morning, we are putting that plan into motion,” Chief Executive Officer Edward Rosenfeld told analysts on an earnings call Thursday."

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/business-and-practice/steven-madden-targets-40-cut-to-china-imports-to-avoid-tariffs

"Companies like Five Below, Crocs, Skechers, Amer Sports and American Eagle Outfitters could be forced to raise prices or take profit cuts because of their exposure to China."

"Trump-backed corporate tax cuts could benefit retailers, but high tariffs would outweigh those tax savings."

"Bank of America also downgraded Yeti Holdings from buy to neutral because of its high exposure to China."

"Some companies, including AutoZone, have already told investors that they will raise prices to cover the additional costs."

“If we get tariffs, we will pass those tariff costs back to the consumer,” AutoZone CEO Philip Daniele said on an earnings call in late September. He said the company typically hikes prices ahead of tariffs going into effect."

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/06/trump-proposed-tariffs-consumer-prices.html

"Pentagon officials are holding informal discussions about how the Department of Defense would respond if Donald Trump issues orders to deploy active-duty troops domestically and fire large swaths of apolitical staffers, defense officials told CNN."

"Trump has suggested he would be open to using active-duty forces for domestic law enforcement and mass deportations and has indicated he wants to stack the federal government with loyalists and “clean out corrupt actors” in the US national security establishment."

"Several former senior military officials who served under Trump have sounded the alarm in recent years about his authoritarian impulses, including Milley and retired Gen. John Kelly, Trump’s former White House chief of staff. Kelly said before the election that Trump fits “into the general definition of fascist” and that he spoke of the loyalty of Hitler’s Nazi generals."  

“Troops are compelled by law to disobey unlawful orders,” said another defense official. “But the question is what happens then – do we see resignations from senior military leaders? Or would they view that as abandoning their people?”

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/08/politics/pentagon-officials-discussing-trump/index.html

Originally Posted by James Lacey

Rich, you are again talking in circles, using jibberish, and moving the goalposts. In Trump's first term, Trump threatened to withhold aid to Democratic-led cities over unrest and California during wildfire disasters. He blocked assistance to Puerto Rico after a hurricane. Reports of these were plentiful at the time, and probes and inquiries have confirmed Trump's actions. One misbehaving low-level bureaucrat in FEMA does not equal the POTUS withholding assistance from blue states that did not vote for him or because he disagrees with their local policies. No matter how much you want to spin, change the subject, or move the goalposts, Trump's actions are entirely unprecedented in American politics, and he's a scumbag for it.

AND:

"A Federal Emergency Management Agency employee has been fired after they advised their disaster relief team to avoid homes with signs supporting former President Donald Trump while canvassing in Florida in the aftermath of Hurricane Milton, the agency’s administrator said Saturday."

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/08/politics/fema-employee-trump-florida-hurricane/index.html

Hey Rich, how about those pentagon official trying to figure what to do if Trump issues unlawful order to the military directing them to do his bidding in the united states? Ya think they've had to do that with any other president?

"Trump refused to give California wildfire aid until told how many people there voted for him, ex-aide says"

"Former White House advisers said Trump hesitated as president to provide disaster aid to California because of the state’s Democratic leanings."

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/03/helene-trump-politics-natural-disaster-00182419

"Vengeful’ Trump withheld disaster aid and will do so again, ex-officials warn"

"Former administration officials say Trump deliberately denied funds to states he deemed politically hostile"

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/13/trump-disaster-funding-warning