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Posts Made By: James Lacey

July 25, 2020 06:26 AM Forum: Politics

The Trump Wallace Redux

Posted By James Lacey
Originally Posted by James Brown

Neo, as in "the One."  

p.s. have not seen Keanu's John Wick movie(s) are they any good?

They are over the top classic revenge movies. I lost interest in that genre back when Charles Bronson was making Death Wish.

Here are some good ones to check out:

1. Outpost
2. Apocalypto (assuming you haven't seen it already)
3. Outlander ( fantasy drama series)
4. Did you ever watch Breaking Bad? I'm kind of tired of the anti-hero genre, but if you haven't seen it, it's quite good.
5. Unorthodox
6. Waco
7. The Hunters
8. Upload
9. The Man in the High Castle
10. Bosch (detective series)
11. Blinded by the light
12. Hamilton (on edit, forget it's on Disney+ now)

July 25, 2020 06:30 AM Forum: Politics

Replace Biden, Somehow

Posted By James Lacey
Originally Posted by Richard Davis

Do they taste like chicken?  LOL

No. They taste like rattle-snake.

July 25, 2020 06:39 AM Forum: Politics

Replace Biden, Somehow

Posted By James Lacey
Originally Posted by James Brown

Somehow the quote button of your rabies reply became inactive.  So, it is good to know that rabies in raccoons is not that big a deal in Colorado.  This is not generally an urban legend though.  The CDC has raccoons as a leading cause of rabies, nationwide.  At least as of 2018.  The trend-lines are good:


https://www.cdc.gov/rabies/location/usa/surveillance/wild_animals.html

I read this book a couple of months back:

Animal Viruses and Humans, a Narrow Divide: How Lethal Zoonotic Viruses Spill Over and Threaten Us Kindle Edition

According to it, rabies is quite common in wild animals. The only reason we don't have a prevalence of it in the US is that we have good vaccination programs for our pets, and honestly, most of us don't spend much time around wild animals anymore. It's a particularly nasty way to die, and spreads along your nerve paths, and can lie dormant for years before appearing. By that time, it's too late. It's a particularly gruesome death. If I spent any significant amount of time outdoors or around wild animals, I would get vaccinated.

Relevant article about India that has a 1/3 of all rabies deaths a year:

Where Streets Are Thronged With Strays Baring Fangs

https://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/07/world/asia/india-stray-dogs-are-a-menace.html?_r=1&rtner=rssnyt&emc=rss

July 26, 2020 08:04 PM Forum: Politics

Replace Biden, Somehow

Posted By James Lacey
Originally Posted by Mel Maki

Roadkill is good. Not on a really hot day, though. 

I have a joke about roadkill, but it always falls flat.

July 28, 2020 03:39 AM Forum: Politics

The Trump Wallace Redux

Posted By James Lacey
Originally Posted by James Brown

Speaking of our governor, guess what he actually thinks (spoiler; only the opposite of what Rich implied he thinks):

I have a joke about windmills since Rich tilts at them, and Trump hates them, but no is ever a fan of it.

July 28, 2020 03:43 AM Forum: Politics

Heard of Helmut Norpoth?

Posted By James Lacey
Originally Posted by Greg Shaffer
He came up with a predictive presidential election model that has been right in 24 out of 26 elections (including 2016).....That says it has only been wrong twice in over 100 years.

That model predicts a 91% probability of Trump winning in Nov......in fact it predicts a landslide of 362 to 176 electoral votes in Trump vs Biden.....

Real Clear Politics Averages for this week:

RCP Average 7/9 - 7/24 -- -- 50.6 41.3 Biden +9.3

CBS News/YouGov 7/21 - 7/24 1401 LV -- 51 41 Biden +10

Harvard-Harris 7/21 - 7/23 1932 RV -- 55 45 Biden +10

Rasmussen Reports 7/15 - 7/21 2500 LV 2.0 47 45 Biden +2

The Hill/HarrisX 7/17 - 7/20 2829 RV 1.8 45 38 Biden +7

FOX News 7/12 - 7/15 1104 RV 3.0 49 41 Biden +8

ABC News/Wash Post 7/12 - 7/15 673 LV -- 54 44 Biden +10

CNBC/Change Research (D)* 7/10 - 7/12 1258 LV 2.8 51 41 Biden +10

Quinnipiac 7/9 - 7/13 1273 RV 2.8 52 37 Biden +15

NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 7/9 - 7/12 900 RV 3.3 51 40 Biden +11

July 28, 2020 04:24 AM Forum: Politics

Heard of Helmut Norpoth?

Posted By James Lacey
Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

Not to mention the RCP electoral data has about twice as many for Biden Vs Trump, roughly equivalent of the "landslide" in the model but in favor of Biden...

All you have to do is be unwilling to consider well-sourced contrary evidence, and listen to only positive feedback loops of data from sympathetic sources, and engage in some magical thinking. Then you, too, will see how Trump is going to blow this thing wide open!

July 28, 2020 04:36 AM Forum: Politics

Heard of Helmut Norpoth?

Posted By James Lacey
Originally Posted by James Brown

Yes, early polling is sometimes wrong.  Heck, the late polling was wrong in 2016.  Still, if I were a big-time Trump supporter, I'd rather see him up in the polls than down.

Jim

Even worse. All of Trump's re-election gambits like his law-and-order play, and Biden is a simpleton maneuver are not helping him at all. Oddly, the one thing that would help him is some kind of improvement in the COVID crisis and him getting credit for it, but he seems to be utterly incapable of what is necessary to cause that kind of change. He may yet get some undue credit, though. It's starting to look like mask orders in Texas, for example, are having a real effect. And there is time for things to improve concerning COVID by November. However, he has to somehow get credit for it too, and things can go sideways more quickly than they can get better given the unpredictable nature of COVID and the utterly impotent federal response. It's hard to imagine things improving for him now.

July 28, 2020 05:04 AM Forum: Politics

The Trump Wallace Redux

Posted By James Lacey
Originally Posted by Richard Davis

I didn't make up any garbage, I simply made a guess at your inkling towards the schools since you haven't mentioned it before.

I stated " we're locking down Schools for the rest of the year it looks like, and I'm certain you are on board with that". 

That was a guess.

It is so hilarious when you back-peddle by making an argument using a distinction that doesn't matter. "I wasn't pulling it out of my ass; I was just guessing." LOL! Jim is right; your titanium bubble is impenetrable.

July 28, 2020 05:14 AM Forum: Politics

Heard of Helmut Norpoth?

Posted By James Lacey
Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

No, we're not forgetting it and that was then and not now. Furthermore, in the cases of Dukakis vs Bush 1 and Clinton vs Trump, both were races with neither candidates being incumbents. We've had nearly 4 years of Trump and he's a known unliked quantity... 

The 538 model was "backtested" to see what it would have predicted 100 days out, these are the results:
1968: Nixon 73% to win - He won
1972: Nixon 99% to win - He won
1976: Carter 55% to win - He won
1980: Reagan 89% to win - He won
1984: Reagan 96% to win - He won
1988: Dukakis 61% to win - He lost
1992: Clinton 69% to win - He won
1996: Clinton 93% to win - He won
2000: Bush 73% to win - He won
2004: Bush 55% to win - He won
2008: Obama 67% to win - He won
2012: Obama 68% to win - He won
2016: Clinton 58% to win - She lost
Wrong only in 1988 and 2016.

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