Posts Made By: James Lacey

Originally Posted by James Brown

Hi James:

So, I disagree that "it is the scientists we need to be listening to," if that statement means "scientists only" and I think it did.

Mike Bowen is a medical device supplier. The quote I cited in context was concerning how the government treated Dr. Bright and how they ignored advice on pandemic preparation.

I do believe that a different administration would have responded better, although any administration would have struggled greatly with this crisis. I think that at the least, we would not have had and continue to have a problem with the PPE supply-chain. I believe that we would be much further on a national strategy for reopening the economy that included test, trace, and isolation. No one thinks that shutting down the economy forever is a solution.

Originally Posted by James Brown

Hi Russ:

This stuff is an embarrassment, but is it a problem?  The graphs demonstrate that enough folks behaved prudently to flatten the curve.  No doubt incautious behavior is and will be increasingly present, but at high enough level to overwhelm the health care system?  I sure have not seen anything like that here and I am confident that most everyone appreciates the continued need for caution. 

In other words, it is pretty easy for a reporter to find one bar full of knuckle-heads, but is that indicative of the majority of Wisconsin's attitude?

Jim

Hi Jim,

Ethics and integrity in leadership are essential, and it certainly matters during a crisis. The example set by Trump and the now apparent willingness of all us just to shrug our shoulders and say, "Well, that's just Trump being Trump," is what enables all of the bad behavior that Russ pointed out. We should never normalize or accept that the right can smear a person like Dr. Fauci for political purposes. The chaotic and dyslexic response by the White House and Trump is not helpful. For example, Trump began his remarks while visiting a PPE factory in PA yesterday by mocking and trivializing the measures that his own White House and the CDC recommended. This event was an official tax-payer funded White House event. He took cheap shots at the press, railed against "globalists," claimed that coronavirus testing was overrated, and said it was a beautiful thing to see nurses running into death just like soldiers running into bullets. He then said, "When you test, you have a case. Whey you test, you find something is wrong with people. If we didn't do any testing, we would have very few cases." Oh, and he never wore a mask either. It's hard to imagine that any of this behavior is helpful.

Regarding the knuckleheads in Wisconsin, it only takes one asymptomatic person to turn a gathering like that into a super-spreader event. In South Korea, one person infected 53 other people while bar-hopping. In an incredible feat of public health prowess, the South Koreans found and separated all of these people and prevented what would have been a severe outbreak. To do so, they had to test many tens-of-thousands of people in a short amount of time. Even after having to deal with this virus for five months now, there is no way the US could pull this off anywhere. South Korea's unemployment rate has remained below 5% while ours is moving towards 20%. The most successful countries have serious national test, trace and isolate protocols in place.

Originally Posted by James Brown

Hi James:  

I agree with your post.  I want to comment on the bolded part.  Although I agree with your sentiment, I have to point out that unjust smearing is simply an ingrained part of the American political scene.  You can rail against it, but who is really the Pollyanna then?    Counter examples from the left are legion; for example, is Governor Kemp really engaging in "human sacrifice"?   https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/why-georgia-reopening-coronavirus-pandemic/610882/

You follow Trump's dysfunction much closer than I do.  I'll concede that his behavior is not helpful.  I don't think it makes as much difference as you do.

South Korea is remarkable - but you are arguably cherry picking an unreasonable model to hold us up against.  There are a lot of differences between the social structures of S. Korea and the US.  Korea has recent experience with SARS, I think.  Even given our haphazard and poorly executed response, the US death rate/M is significantly less that most European countries.  There are a lot of moving parts here that call any country v. country comparison into question.

I can agree that our response at the federal level was haphazard and I can certainly agree that Trump is saying foolish things.  I can agree that the politicization of this event by both sides is repugnant.    I can't agree that a better federal response would have made more than a marginal difference in the outcomes we are experiencing.  For example, I don't blame Cuomo for the world-leading¹ 1500 deaths/M in NY.  I doubt you blame him either.  Sometimes the pudding hits the fan and you do the best you can with a lousy situation.  7 weeks ago a collapsed health care system was a 50/50 possibility or maybe even more likely.  The US did pretty good.

Jim 

1.  Assuming the death toll in Wuhan is not something astronomical/M.  We'll never know.

We shut down to save lives and spare our health-care system. Mission-accomplished. Great job. I credit state and local leaders and the American people for that success. However, the federal government squandered the time bought by this effort. There is no reason we could not have a test, trace, and isolate program such as in places like South Korea and Taiwan. I don't buy the "cultural differences" argument. No one thought Americans would social-distance and isolate as we have either. What do we get instead? All kinds of false promises about a vaccine. I will be happy to be wrong, but the truth is a vaccine normally takes ten years to develop. If done in 4 years, that would be amazingly fast -- two years insane and one year impossible. Not to mention that for months only high-risk individuals will get it, and it may be years more before its available to the general public. Instead of all this fairy tale nonsense, why aren't we working on test, trace, and isolate procedures and protocols? It makes no sense to me.

Originally Posted by James Brown

Hi James:

I agree regarding the vaccine timetable.  I know that HIV is a special case, but there is no vaccine available and probably never will be for several reasons. 

I'm curious why are you saying that we are not working on test, trace and isolate procedures?  I know that testing, tracing and isolating is one leg of the CO phase 2 and phase 3 plans.  Also, according to worldometer, the US has administered 32,877 test/M.  This is middle of the pack for most countries.  Korea has only administered 14,177 tests/M.

Maybe the Koreans are better at the trace and isolate parts, I do not doubt that, but this is a long way from saying that we are "not working" on test, trace, and isolate procedures and protocols.  I am pretty sure that in Colorado at least we are working on those protocols.  I have no idea if we are any good at it, but I know that the state an local authorities are working on it.

Jim

Regarding testing, per capita, we are somewhere around 20th the last time I checked. The total number of tests has been going up, and that is a good thing, but we are still a long way from the massive contact tracing effort that will be required to manage and contain the virus without a vaccine. There are piece-meal efforts here and there at the state and local level. However, it appears we still have no work at the federal level to help implement the massive contact tracing effort that we will need. It's my humble opinion, and by the way, Dr. Redfield at the CDC agrees with me, that there is no way that state and local governments can afford or effectively coordinate this effort. Only the federal government can achieve a coordinated effort on the scale we need. Otherwise, we are merely going to shut-down, re-open, shut-down, re-open, etc.

Right now, we don't even do any testing in our airports when international travelers arrive from at-risk origins. Remember, despite the travel "bans," citizens and legal permanent residents can still travel from at-risk departures. Just about anyone can arrive from an at-risk country by traveling via a stop-over. When they reach the US, they are asked to self-quarantine for 14 days, given some information about COVID-19, but that is it.

Originally Posted by Mel Maki

Testing, tracing, and isolating is easier in a country with one-sixth the population and culturally they are more more likely to follow government directives.

Hi Mel,

I reject both these premises, especially the cultural argument. Critics made that same argument when stay-at-home orders went into place, and it proved to be incorrect. It turns out that people are more than willing to comply with orders when they see that otherwise, their health and the health of others are at risk. I like to think that a lot of Americans acted magnanimously in this regard. There is no reason we cannot execute a test, trace, and isolate protocol at the federal level. Indeed, we need one in our international arrival airports, which is by definition under the federal purview.

Originally Posted by Greg Shaffer

SO those of you who support keeping the lock downs in place let me ask you a few questions....

1) How many children should go hungry to keep you feeling safe?

2) How many families should go bankrupt for you to feel safe?

3) How many business owners should lose everything for you to feel safe?

4) How many people need to lose theirs jobs, their health insurance, their life's savings to make you feel safe?

By all means come up with a number you think should surrender their lives for your feelings and safety?

Hi Greg,

No one wants the "lockdowns" to continue in perpetuity. What some of us would like to see is widespread testing so that we can be confident that the number of cases in the population is low, and so we can quarantine infected people. Some state and local governments are planning on doing this as best they can, but almost all public health experts say that most communities do not have the needed capacity. Without an adequate test, trace and isolate protocol, we are just going to let everyone out for a few days, and then two weeks later we will have a surge in cases and start all over again.

Originally Posted by Domenic Quadrini

The United states has about 1/23 of the world population, but it has about 1/3 of the documented Covid-19 cases.  Either somebody's not being honest in their reporting or we are really screwed.

Hi Domenic,

Honestly, it's both. I believe that the US is doing a far better job than most regarding reporting infections and deaths honestly. Even so, I also do not doubt that the US is undercounting both illnesses and deaths. On the other hand, it's certain that other countries like China, Iran, Russia, etc., are not reporting honestly. So, short answer yes, somebody is not honest, and yes, we are screwed. No vaccine on the horizon is going to save us. Even if we had a vaccine today, we don't have the manufacturing capacity or the supplies to make and distribute it at the scale needed. Even if we had it right now, it would take at least two years to reach even 25% of the population. I have read recently about some promising treatments and therapies that could be fast-tracked, but even Ramdesivir that we heard so much about a few weeks ago is turning out to be a bust. Indeed by now, no one thinks hydroxychloroquine is a miracle treatment either. In my humble opinion, what we truly need is a national test, trace and isolate protocol. It's what countries like South Korea and Taiwan have used with great success to control their infection rates. Yet, we don't seem to be any closer to such a program than we were five months ago.

Originally Posted by Greg Shaffer

How do you know that? There are states that did not lockdown and their stats are in line with the rest.....calling bullshit

There is a lot we don't know about this virus yet. For example, why is the east-coast outbreak so much worse than the west-coast outbreak? The truth is we don't understand why some states have mainly escaped unscathed so far, and why some states have an inundation of infections and deaths. It's also true that we simply don't have enough testing to have an accurate picture of what is happening everywhere. At the end of the day, though, a reopening plan has to win the faith of the public by being sustainable, or otherwise, we will just ricochet back and forth between shutting down and reopening.

Originally Posted by Domenic Quadrini

Oh.  The latest news from NBC says that there is hope for a vaccine within a year, possibly even by the end of this year.  Keep your fingers crossed.

Early results are promising, and I'm cautiously optimistic, but this initial trial was eight people. Even if everything goes perfectly, it still won't be widely available until mid-2021 or later. I was glad to hear too that the vaccine Czar Mr. Slaoui divested his $10Mn in Moderna stock options; finally, someone in Trump's orbit who is ethical. The technique used by Moderna, messenger RNA, has never produced a viable vaccine either. So, good news, and as you said, let's keep our fingers crossed.

Originally Posted by Darian Rachal

Yes, that is rather convenient.🤣😂  I seem to recall quite clearly the hysteria over the 2 million+ number that the "experts" touted.

Hi Darian,


The two million-plus number was the prediction if we did nothing. I honestly don't understand why this is so hard to understand. The epidemiological models update their forecasts in real-time based on the facts on the ground. Additionally, even your hero, Trump, uses this fact to claim that only 150,000 dead by August is a great job.


"Think of the number — potentially 2.2 million people if we did nothing if we didn't do the distancing, if we didn't do all of the things that we're doing," Trump said Sunday. -- Donald J. Trump, May 29th, 2020