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Posts Made By: James Brown

November 1, 2026 12:34 AM Forum: Politics

Election predictions

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by James Brown

I agree with what Maurice, Jim, and James said.   Not nearly as strident as James though - I think Trump is full of bluster, but not actually affecting reasonable Americans.   I expect a blue wave in the house, and a 51/49 Senate in favor of the
Aw, common - was the humor too subtle?  sad

November 1, 2026 12:46 AM Forum: Politics

Election predictions

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by James Lacey
 Trump can't just accept a loss; he always has to create a pretext for why he was cheated, and he doesn't care one whit who or what he harms as long as it soothes his ego. He's done this before, so no one should think he won't do it again,

and Trump outright said, when he was asked, that he told the DOJ to file the lawsuit in Alaska.
No reasonable person could argue with the first statement I bolded above.  100% agree.

But the second statement needs reconsideration in view of the NYT investigative piece published a few days ago. 

It would really be ironic if an unnecessary, and probably illegal D dirty trick in Alaska cost them the Senate.  Sean Trende had a good analysis of this the other day.  Basically he said that when someone like Trump lies or cheats it does not affect his voters, because they already know he is immoral and a cheater.  However, Mary Petola has characterized herself as an honest person, one who is above partisan skullduggery.  The NYT article, confirming that her campaign and the national campaign actively sought out the second Dan Sullivan might make a difference in this tight race, especially in view of her now totally implausible denials.

November 1, 2026 12:55 AM Forum: Politics

Election predictions

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by James Brown

100% agree.  I'm not optimistic the D's won't squander their goodwill with endless impeachments and lawsuits.  On the other hand, I totally get it that Congress can not do too much actual legislating without a veto-proof majority, or the white house.  Any impeachment is DOA since at best the Ds will have only a slim majority in the Senate.  The Ds should try to address the economy and foreign affairs though, putting the ball back into Trump's court.  Make him veto popular and reasonable legislation and then coast to victory in 2028.
OK here's an idea suitable for Hollywood - how about Vance working backstage, Kevin Spacey style from the first few seasons of "House of Cards" to flip enough R Senators to convict Trump after the impeachment?  He'd probably need to flip 16 or 17 Republicans.  Surely that many hate Trump privately?  Then, Spacey - oops, I mean Vance, would be president for almost two years and get to run as the incumbent in '28.  Could happen!  I'm working on the screenplay.  cool

November 1, 2026 05:58 AM Forum: Politics

Election predictions

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

Oh, and surprise, surprise: "Over 40% of names on DOJ list of alleged noncitizens(in Calif) are not on Calif voter rolls, analysis finds"  "The analysis also found that thousands of U.S. citizens appear to be flagged as ineligible to vote on the government’s list."

https://apnews.com/article/california-justice-department-noncitizen-voters-midterms-45b31d5aefb03723f0e59f6084e918d4

Reminds of the Trump government doing this in Nevada :  "The federal government said 15,903. The answer was zero."  

"In July 2026, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) sent a letter to Nevada Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar (D) claiming that as many as 15,903 noncitizens were on Nevada's voter rolls. The Department of Justice (DOJ) sent letters to election officials in all 50 states the same week, threatening criminal prosecution. The message from Washington was clear: Nevada's elections were compromised and federal action was warranted."  "None of it held up."

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/opinion-the-federal-government-said-15903-the-answer-was-zero

But, what's that compared to a couple of candidates with similar names in Alaska?
I think you are missing the point.  Trump's legendary BS about widespread election fraud six years ago was entirely and definitively disproven six years ago.  He’s at it again and he is scum.  No doubt he'll resort to the same old lies about election fraud when his party loses the House and Senate Tuesday.  There is nothing comparable about the magnitude of Trump's lies and Petola's lies at all.  

But, Petola is locked in a tight race for a Senate seat that matters a lot.  If she loses it because of her campaign's malfeasance, and if that matters for a Senate majority...  Well then, I think ironic is the right word.  We'll see tomorrow, or maybe next week - Alaska is notoriously slow.

November 2, 2026 01:00 AM Forum: Politics

Election predictions

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

Breaking news: "Judge tosses DOJ’s lawsuit over Alaska Senate race":   https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/6186982-judge-dismisses-trump-alaska-lawsuit/

Hopefully, any undecideds at this point in Alaska will see this for what it was: another bogus move by Trump folks to sway the election...
Doesn't the Petola campaign's dirty trick bother you at all?  Imagine you were an undecided in Alaska who craves an honest politician.

November 2, 2026 03:48 PM Forum: Politics

Election predictions

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Maurice Clark

Hi James, 

I agree with you that this was a stupid move by Petola's campaign,  and one that can only be detrimental to her election chances.  However,  all the gnashing of teeth and howls of indignation from the Republicans is really hypocritical I feel, since this sort of dirty tricks has been going on for decades. See here for a few examples.  https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2026/Items/Oct30-1.html

In Australia we had similar shenanigans.  We have compulsory voting (you are fined if you do not vote) and voting uses the preferential system. ( what you call ranked choice). Originally candidates were listed alphabetically,  so candidates would change their name before the election in order to appear first on the ballot and so get what we called the "donkey vote". Ie. Those who just numbered the boxes 1,2 3 etc without knowing who the candidates were. That was finally stopped when the electoral commission switched to listing candidates randomly. 

Have fun Tuesday night. Make sure you have plenty of popcorn! 🙃

Maurice
I agree with you and Rod that this dirty trick was small potatoes compared to what’s been done in the past. Patola has positioned herself as an honest politician who would not play these sort of games. If I were an Alaska voter it would matter to me.   probably not enough to vote for a Republican if I was a registered/lifelong Democrat.

November 3, 2026 04:11 PM Forum: Politics

Election predictions

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Russ Carroll

My understanding is that there is a top-2 runoff if no candidate gets more 50% of the vote, so it seems immaterial to me.
You bet, totally immaterial as far as the actual mechanics of the election goes.  makes you wonder why the Democratic operatives went to such lengths to pull such a stunt.

In view of Alaska’s ranked choice voting, and the clear marking of the real Dan Sullivan as the Republican and incumbent, it seems to me that the risk of this dirty trick backfiring for some voters is greater than any possible benefit.

Are the political operatives who implemented this particular dirty trick that stupid? It seems so.

November 3, 2026 04:44 PM Forum: Politics

Election predictions

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Jim Moscheck
Hopefully tomorrow is D day and the beginning of the end of MAGA. Of course, I could be totally off base and trump gets out the vote from his minions, although I also think his minions may be hurting a bit economically and disappointed he did the exact opposite of what he promised he'd do. Hopefully they put the blame where it is due. Besides, trump has been even more a whack job the last few months than he has been in the past. The screamer would be screaming about it if it was Biden saying the crazy things coming out of trump's mouth at his rallies.
I think the Republicans will be crushed by the Democrats tomorrow. I’d like to think it will be the end of MAGA, but it’s not going to be.   Populism is on the rise in the US and Europe both.  Our brand of right wing populism is MAGA of course, but the left-wing populist DSA is going to have a very big night tonight.   I’m afraid MAGA sentiment is going to be energized, and back and full force in 2028.   The left and right fringes seem to be in control.

For example, I think this forum is extremely moderate, with the obvious exception of Richard.  Within the last week or so we have pretty much unanimously agreed the new Democratic majority in Congress ought to spend its time focusing on the economy and rational foreign affairs, rather than futilely impeaching Trump and threatening prosecution. We’ll see, but I doubt that is how the next two years go down.

People like you and me, moderate left and right wingers probably still control the elections, but we are a long way from being able to set any agenda.

November 3, 2026 04:52 PM Forum: Politics

Election predictions

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Russ Carroll
One final prediction:

I think we may be watching history repeat itself in today's election, and Republicans should be very concerned about the long-term consequences.

Remember California's Proposition 187?

In 1994, Republican Governor Pete Wilson embraced an initiative to deny public education and other government services to illegal immigrants. The proposition passed overwhelmingly, and Wilson won reelection.

But Republicans paid a terrible long-term political price. Hispanic voters increasingly abandoned the party, helping transform California from a competitive state into one dominated by Democrats. More than 30 years later, Republicans still haven't recovered.

Fast forward to 2024. Trump made remarkable gains among Hispanic voters, receiving 48% of their vote, nearly matching Harris. It was an enormous opportunity for Republicans to build a lasting political coalition.

Instead, Trump has pursued an immigration crackdown that has gone well beyond what many of those voters thought they were supporting.

There is a huge difference between securing the border and making millions of American citizens feel that their families and communities are under attack.

And the polling shows it. A recent Pew survey found that Trump's approval among Hispanic voters has fallen to just 24%.

Today's election may be remembered as the beginning of another Proposition 187 moment, this time on a national scale.

Pete Wilson won his election in 1994, but his party lost a generation of voters.

Trump is about to accomplish the same thing.
Compelling analysis.

November 4, 2026 03:47 AM Forum: Politics

Total Repudiation of Trump

Posted By James Brown

Still sort of early, but it looks like Texas is going to have a D Senator and a D governor for the first time in decades.  Iowa and Kansas in play….  Andrews (D) winning in SC.   Wow.   This is a total shellacking.   For Rod in particular, Lauren Boebert is losing in CO, in a really red district.  😳. I can’t tell how much of the vote is outstanding though, so no promises on that race.