Posts Made By: James Brown

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

Jim, 

I was wondering when you were going to chime in on the thread you started and I thought to myself you better have a goshdarn good reason for not participating such as:

1. You got called up as a reserve JAG officer to investigate and sue anyone opposing anything the administration says or does in the war, similar to the civilian roles Pam Bondi and Jeanine Pirro play in serving the whims of Donald Trump.

2. You were out observing at a dark sky site, like I was and, in which case, you get a hard pass on participating in the thread with the only really valid reason for not doing so.

3. You began reading Richard's posts, then stopped because you, like the rest of us, couldn't take it anymore and said, "Ah the hell with it!":'(

4. You're so besides yourself with the administration for not having the navy in place to keep the strait open despite the pentagon planning for this for years with the administration failing to execute on it. 

5. You just want this whole business of the war over and done with so we can go back to some sense of normality and the sooner the better.

Originally Posted by The David Cotterell

Excellent summary of where things will go by US Senator Chris Murphy.  He posted all this on Bluesky which I have copy/pasted here.

"It’s crystal clear now that Trump has lost control of this war. He badly misjudged Iran’s ability to retaliate. The region is on fire.

1/ I’m going to explain to you in this what I’ve learned - in part from closed door briefings - about the biggest current crises.


2/ Trump believed Iran would not close the Strait of Hormuz. He was wrong. And now oil prices are spiking.
If the Strait stays closed, a global recession will result. It actually may already be too late. Gas prices are the first to spike, but food prices are next.


3/ Right now, Trump has no plan to reopen the Strait. And a plan may not exist.
The assets Iran uses to harass and attack tankers - thousands of small drones, speed boats and mines - cannot be eliminated. They are too numerous, too spread out and hidden.


4/ What about naval escorts for tankers? This is a possibility, but it’s harder than you think.
First, it would require our entire navy. 100 tankers need escorting each day. 
Second, if we can’t destroy the mines and drones, our ships are at risk too.


5/  We can destroy Iran’s missiles but not all their drones, and war today is drone war.
Iran can hit oil sites in the region indefinitely because they posses so many cheap, weaponized drones.
And they are. They blew up a critical Oman oil depot two days ago.


6/ If Trump paid any attention to the Ukraine War he would have noticed how warfare has changed. But he didn’t. And he blundered.
Worse, the Gulf states are running out of interceptors to stop Iranian missiles and drones - meaning that soon more oil sites will be vulnerable.


7/  A broader, regional war is breaking out as Iranian proxies in Lebanon hit Israel and those in Iraq target the U.S.. Israel is now threatening a massive ground invasion of Lebanon, which could become its own new crisis.

8/ Other potential flash points lurk. So far, the Houthis in Yemen have been relatively quiet. Probably not for long. They can project power into the Red Sea.
For Syria, this is the worst time for Trump to strike Iran. Syria could explode again.


9/  Trump has no endgame. Iran and its proxies can create chaos indefinitely.
So what’s next? A ground invasion?This would be Armageddon. Thousands of dead Americans.
Declare false victory? Then the new Iranian hardliners in charge just rebuild what we destroyed.


10/ All of this was totally foreseeable. Frankly, it’s why previous presidents weren’t so stupid to start a war like this.
Trump has lost control of the war. His best course now is to cut his losses and end it. That’s the only way to prevent an even bigger disaster.

What do you all think?

Dave

Originally Posted by Russ Carroll

The President is urging other countries to provide escorts for tankers through the Gulf — and if there’s one thing Trump knows about, it’s foreign escorts.

Originally Posted by James Lacey

As long as the Iranian security forces, whose main purpose for existence is to prevent a coup, are still around, the Iranian people don't stand a chance. I saw a report the other day that Israel is targeting the checkpoints, patrols, and roadblocks that the Basij, IRGC, and other security forces in Iran used to keep the population in check. Still, it's hard to imagine that those attacks alone will remove their status as the sole arbiter of force, especially given that the state of Iran has a monopoly on weapons and firearms.

As far as regime change goes, so far all we've accomplished is replacing a crazy religiously ideological 88-year-old leader with an even crazier younger one who is no doubt now hell-bent on revenge.

And I believe that no matter how many Navy ships are sent to the Strait of Hormuz, Iran can keep it shut down as long as they like. All it takes is the threat of mines or attacks, and the occasional successful strike with cheap drones, and no tanker will risk it, and no insurer will touch it. Even if Navies wanted to escort tankers, they would be vulnerable to explosive mines. And minesweeping is not easy; it is a dangerous, slow, and highly technical task that involves operating in proximity to explosive sea mines. The US Navy currently has 4 Avenger-class minesweepers in its fleet, which are forward deployed to Japan. I believe they are moving them to the Middle East right now, but that takes time. They have to be carried on another larger ship, as they are not big enough for open-ocean voyages. They also have some Littoral-class ships that can be configured for and used for minesweeping, but it's unclear how many we have and where they are right now. I seriously doubt the Navies of other countries have much better capabilities.

We have no idea how many mines Iran has already deployed, where they are, and what type they are, of which there are dozens and dozens of different kinds. They are cheap to manufacture and can be deployed even by small fishing boats, and Iran probably has thousands and thousands of boats that could be used. I believe the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed as long as Iran wants it closed, and it doesn't matter how many other countries send their Navies to the region. And imagine if "many countries" were to send their ships to the Strait of Hormuz, what an operational and logistical nightmare that would be. The chances for mistakes and unintended consequences would be very high. I don't think any country, much less many, is sending their ships to the Strait of Hormuz without some diplomatic agreement in place with Iran.

I'm pretty sure this war with Iran will prove to be a huge blunder in the long run. There was never a quick or precise victory over Iran possible, and my guess is we will have to claim victory while quietly accepting a strategic defeat. Until then, we will waste more lives, money, and resources on a doomed endeavor.

Originally Posted by James Lacey

As long as the Iranian security forces, whose main purpose for existence is to prevent a coup, are still around, the Iranian people don't stand a chance. I saw a report the other day that Israel is targeting the checkpoints, patrols, and roadblocks that the Basij, IRGC, and other security forces in Iran used to keep the population in check. Still, it's hard to imagine that those attacks alone will remove their status as the sole arbiter of force, especially given that the state of Iran has a monopoly on weapons and firearms.

As far as regime change goes, so far all we've accomplished is replacing a crazy religiously ideological 88-year-old leader with an even crazier younger one who is no doubt now hell-bent on revenge.

And I believe that no matter how many Navy ships are sent to the Strait of Hormuz, Iran can keep it shut down as long as they like. All it takes is the threat of mines or attacks, and the occasional successful strike with cheap drones, and no tanker will risk it, and no insurer will touch it. Even if Navies wanted to escort tankers, they would be vulnerable to explosive mines. And minesweeping is not easy; it is a dangerous, slow, and highly technical task that involves operating in proximity to explosive sea mines. The US Navy currently has 4 Avenger-class minesweepers in its fleet, which are forward deployed to Japan. I believe they are moving them to the Middle East right now, but that takes time. They have to be carried on another larger ship, as they are not big enough for open-ocean voyages. They also have some Littoral-class ships that can be configured for and used for minesweeping, but it's unclear how many we have and where they are right now. I seriously doubt the Navies of other countries have much better capabilities.

We have no idea how many mines Iran has already deployed, where they are, and what type they are, of which there are dozens and dozens of different kinds. They are cheap to manufacture and can be deployed even by small fishing boats, and Iran probably has thousands and thousands of boats that could be used. I believe the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed as long as Iran wants it closed, and it doesn't matter how many other countries send their Navies to the region. And imagine if "many countries" were to send their ships to the Strait of Hormuz, what an operational and logistical nightmare that would be. The chances for mistakes and unintended consequences would be very high. I don't think any country, much less many, is sending their ships to the Strait of Hormuz without some diplomatic agreement in place with Iran.

I'm pretty sure this war with Iran will prove to be a huge blunder in the long run. There was never a quick or precise victory over Iran possible, and my guess is we will have to claim victory while quietly accepting a strategic defeat. Until then, we will waste more lives, money, and resources on a doomed endeavor.

Originally Posted by James Lacey

I agree; it will take a decade or more to recover from all the damage the orange wrecking ball has caused with his "feel it in my bones" style of governance and action. But hey, at least we don't have the far more qualified brown lady with a cackling laugh in office. Ha ha.

Bring on the global recession, though! I have my 42-mpg hybrid in the garage and a substantial amount of cash on hand, which I'd love to cost-average into the market after a 10,000-point drop. With some luck, maybe I'll be able to afford to do some significant legacy building before I leave this mortal coil.

Originally Posted by James Brown

Obviously tongue in cheek but still, 10,000 point drop? yYou are far far more pessimistic than the overall market is.

p.s. “ far more competent“ is exceptionally faint praise in this context. I sure as heck hope very few Democrats are supporting Harris for 2028. I’m obviously not a democrat, but I would take anyone on Rod Kaufman‘s shortlist over her.  I really don’t think she has objectively demonstrated any significant competence whatsoever.  J

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

BUT, we now have the cons on SCOTUS, who have obviously drank the Kool Aid from Faux News about voter fraud being real, are about to strike down  mail-in-voting if it arrives after the post mark of the election day. So much for ballots cast by members of the military that get delayed because of distance, or those of elderly or disabled voters whose ballots are similarly delayed because of infirmities, unforeseen weather conditions, transportation delays, etc etc...