Posts Made By: ROBERT MOORE

Well, with a great Day here in New York and the moon just setting up in the sky, knowing what sunset will bring, I took my new ToUcam 840pro II cam out and tried to get some images of the moon in the day light. Please let me know what you think ( Good or Bad )

Bob
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"This appears to be VERY GOOD NEWS regarding the next two sunspot cycles. Start getting your gear ready!"

2006-5 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: March 6, 2006

Scientists Issue Unprecedented Forecast of Next Sunspot Cycle


David Hosansky, NCAR Media Relations
303-497-8611
[email protected]

Mausumi Dikpati, NCAR High Altitude Observatory
303-497-1512
[email protected]

Peter Gilman, NCAR High Altitude Observatory
303-497-1546
[email protected]

BOULDER—The next sunspot cycle will be 30-50% stronger than the last one and begin as much as a year late, according to a reakthrough forecast using a computer model of solar dynamics developed by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Predicting the Sun's cycles accurately, years in advance, will help societies plan for active bouts of solar storms, which can slow satellite orbits, disrupt communications, and bring down power systems.

The scientists have confidence in the forecast because, in a series of test runs, the newly developed model simulated the strength of the past eight solar cycles with more than 98% accuracy. The forecasts are generated, in part, by tracking the subsurface movements of the sunspot remnants of the previous two solar cycles. The team is publishing its forecast in the current issue of Geophysical Research Letters.

“Our model has demonstrated the necessary skill to be used as a
forecasting tool,” says NCAR scientist Mausumi Dikpati, the leader of the forecast team at NCAR’s High Altitude Observatory that also includes Peter Gilman and Giuliana de Toma.

-----Understanding the cycles -----

The Sun goes through approximately 11-year cycles, from peak storm
activity to quiet and back again. Solar scientists have tracked them for some time without being able to predict their relative intensity or timing.

Forecasting the cycle may help society anticipate solar storms, which can disrupt communications and power systems and affect the orbits of satellites. The storms are linked to twisted magnetic fields in the Sun that suddenly snap and release tremendous amounts of energy. They tend to occur near dark regions of concentrated magnetic fields, known as sunspots.

The NCAR team’s computer model, known as the Predictive Flux-transport Dynamo Model, draws on research by NCAR scientists indicating that the evolution of sunspots is caused by a current of plasma, or electrified gas, that circulates between the Sun's equator and its poles over a period of 17 to 22 years. This current acts like a conveyor belt of sunspots.

The sunspot process begins with tightly concentrated magnetic field
lines in the solar convection zone (the outermost layer of the Sun’s interior). The field lines rise to the surface at low latitudes and form bipolar sunspots, which are regions of concentrated magnetic fields. When these sunspots decay, they imprint the moving plasma with a type of magnetic signature. As the plasma nears the poles, it sinks about 200,000 kilometers (124,000 miles) back into the convection zone and starts returning toward the equator at a speed of about one meter (three feet) per second or slower. The increasingly concentrated fields become stretched and twisted by the internal rotation of the Sun as they near
the equator, gradually becoming less stable than the surrounding plasma. This eventually causes coiled-up magnetic field lines to rise up, tear through the Sun's surface, and create new sunspots.

The subsurface plasma flow used in the model has been verified with the relatively new technique of helioseismology, based on observations from both NSF– and NASA–supported instruments. This technique tracks sound waves reverberating inside the Sun to reveal details about the interior, much as a doctor might use an ultrasound to see inside a patient.

-----Predicting Cycles 24 and 25 -----

The Predictive Flux-transport Dynamo Model is enabling NCAR scientists to predict that the next solar cycle, known as Cycle 24, will produce sunspots across an area slightly larger than 2.5% of the visible surface of the Sun. The scientists expect the cycle to begin in late 2007 or early 2008, which is about 6 to 12 months later than a cycle would normally start. Cycle 24 is likely to reach its peak about 2012.

By analyzing recent solar cycles, the scientists also hope to forecast sunspot activity two solar cycles, or 22 years, into the future. The NCAR team is planning in the next year to issue a forecast of Cycle 25, which will peak in the early 2020s.

“This is a significant breakthrough with important applications,
especially for satellite-dependent sectors of society,” explains NCAR scientist Peter Gilman.

The NCAR team received funding from the National Science Foundation and NASA’s Living with a Star program. NCAR’S primary sponsor is the National Science Foundation. Opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.





Find images on the Web at
http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases

Bob

Hi all; I'm interested in doing the long exposure mod on a ToUcam pro II. I have looked at the Steve Chambers mod @ http://www.philip.davis.dsl.pipex.com/tcp2_mods.htm but some of the images on the web page are a bit fuzzy. I was wondering if there as a better step by step with good photos and text that some has used with success.

Thank for any help

Bob

Hi All; Well at this point it looks likes we will have 85% cloud cover at Waywayanda on Sat. night, so I don't think it will be a go for this weekend but keep your eye on the weather for any changes, if things do clear up we should be getting to Waywayanda at about 5:00 pm to set up and let the scopes cool down. As you know the rain date is April 1-2 so if we can't do it this weekend then I hope to see you on the 1st @ 5:00 pm

Bob

I posted this first on the CCD Imaging and Processing forum but got no reply's so i'm trying it here.

Hi all; I'm interested in doing the long exposure mod on a ToUcam pro II. I have looked at the Steve Chambers mod @ http://www.philip.davis.dsl.pipex.com/tcp2_mods.htm but some of the images on the web page are a bit fuzzy. I was wondering if there as a better step by step with good photos and text that some has used with success.

Thank for any help

Bob

Hi all; Anyone know how to remove Armorall from plastic? Someone and I'm not going to say who :S , had this bright 8) idea to put armorall on the elevation surfaces of my xt10i, and now the thing will not stay where you point it. The scope drifts up or down depending on the load. I have tryed Acetone but to no avail ..... H E L P ! ! !

Bob

HI All I just picked up my EQ-G Atlis but the Rings did not come in for my 10" newt. so I tried some of our other scope's on it. Let me know what you all think.

Bob

Hi All; After getting the new Atlis EQ-G Mount for my 10" newt. i'm starting to look at some higher end eyepieces. I want to start with a high power EP first. I should tell you that I'm not a big fan of barlows probably because the one I have is junk. So today I was comparing the Nagler Type 6 3.5mm with a TV Radian 3.mm, I liked the Radian because of its adjustable eye relief I'm 4 eyed so that will with the glasses. Also because of the glasses I'm not able to take full advantage of the Nagler's wider FOV. The Neg. goes for about $290.00 and the Radian is about $250.00 so the extra money is not a big thing.

Can anyone tell your impressions of the two EP's.

Bob

Boy, do I need to learn more stars ... I took the new Atlas EQ-G mount out last night and set it up with the 80mm. Did a polar alinement and then started a 2 star alinement, and right out of the box I knew I was in deep dodo :S . The computer asked for some star I never heard of . So I hit the enter key and off the scope went, I as hoping it would stop next to some bright star and I would center on it and then go off to the next one, but no luck, with the Moon > and not knowing what the hell stat I was looking for I just centered up on what ever was close. hit the enter key and thats right the next one was just as bad, so I did the something as before, i "asked" the mount to goto the Moon off it went to the west at about 25deg.el.. The Moon was almost over head. At this point I moved the scope manually to Jupiter were it tracked well for about an hour.

So after I learn about a billion new star names it should be a breeze

Bob

Hi all; I have an XT10i Dob that I just picked up an Atlas EQ-G for, but I wont to keep the elevation bearings from the Don on the scope, that way when I go to star parties I can just take the dob base and not the Atlas. Haveing said all that I'm thinking of putting a 3/4" block between the dovetail and the rings so when i need to rotate the scope on the EQ it will not hit the Dob elevation bearings. Do you see any problum with this set up?

Bob