Posts Made By: James Lacey

Originally Posted by James Brown

No, I do not think 100% of the world's population will be infected.  Also, I don't believe your claim that James Lacey said 100% of the world population would be infected with the virus.  Link to his post and I'll read it though.

Jim

Of course, I didn't say that. Richard is misrepresenting what happened. He does this to engage in fussy and pedantic fault-finding that has nothing to do with the subject at hand. I did say something along the lines that we would all get it sooner or later if nothing was done. In any case, this kind of nit-picking is just par for the course for him.

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

Yes, you did say that.  You changed your mind the next day and tried your BS of saying "I really never meant that".

All I can say is that this just reeks of your daily, or even your minute by minute hypocrisy, whereby you scrutinize every single word this President utters and then call him out on it, twisting his words in nearly posting you make.  

You said it, then you doubled down on it.  

And since you want to hold Donald Trump to every single word he utters, then you need to OWN the stupidity that you print here virtually every day, instead of whining about it, when I call you on your nonsense.  

And guess what, I'm gonna' keep calling you out on your ignorant monologues every time you post the nonsense you post.  

You are a sad little man. You are so insecure about the dear leader that you feel like you have to nit-pick every word I type and make up minor distinctions that don't matter, so you have somewhere to vent your hostility? Well, nit-pick this then. Trump is a moron and is the worst possible person we could have in charge right now. He is like the shady contractor who you hire to remodel the kitchen that tells you that he will be done next week every week. Just one more week and everyone who wants a test can have a test. Only one more week, and we'll be doing millions of tests. Just one more week and you will have all the supplies you need and drive-through testing across the nation. The federal response has been a joke, and there is no doubt that he missed the opportunity to get ahead of this virus. Any competent leader should be enjoying double-digit improvements in their approval rating. Trump's approval rating has barely budged a couple of points. His downplaying and dismissiveness of the real danger was irresponsible and costly. His legacy will hinge on his response to this crisis, and fierce criticism and ridicule are all he deserves.

Originally Posted by Greg Shaffer

You didnt ask me but I suspect Rich and I would have similar perspectives......Humans for the most part have no natural resistance to this virus therefor even with the fact that I am sure there will be exceptions as everyone is not the same ie some small percentage will be naturally resistant to it, the majority of the population will catch it unless a vaccine is developed. Barring exceptions it is not a case of if but rather a case of when.

LOL! This is almost exactly what I said just a few weeks ago and what Richard has been harping on for the same number of weeks!

Originally Posted by Mel Maki

He did not do it right. He copied to 20 people? Did not include his immediate superior in the letter? Did not mention his concerns in multiple video conferences with superiors? The chain of command is still there. 

I agree with you Mel, the chain of command in the military is sacrosanct, but it's still sad to see him get sacked over this. Maybe he should have just committed some war crimes?

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

And where's the  "acting Navy secretary" now? Defending his decision on conservative talk radio, that's where.
Now another US carrier, the USS Ronald Reagan has an outbreak in its crew. Where'd that leak from? Better fire the captain...
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/03/acting-navy-secretary-defends-firing-of-captain-who-warned-of-virus-outbreak-162877

Yikes! Don't tell my wife. Our son is deployed on the USS Eisenhower right now. He's an officer, so has better quarters than many, but still, it's tight on those ships.

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

I hope your son will be ok; I would think they're taking every precaution to minimize the potential for an outbreak. 
When you think about it, I'd suppose the ships are roughly in the same situation as some of those cruise ships are in since they've got a lot of people contained in the same area for a protracted period of time. I'm sure it's a difficult situation for all...

No one has been off his ship since it deployed three months ago, and they have three more to go.  From what we hear through his wife, the supply ships have been few and far between. They were making Quessadillas the other night out of Gouda cheese!   No one said serving your country was going to be a walk in the park, did they?

Originally Posted by Greg Shaffer

Read it and weep Rod lol

306,000+ confirmed cases, 8300+ confirmed deaths, 1.5 million confirmed tests, 25 deaths per million population reported in real time as the numbers come in for the USA.....updated several times a day.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR2PLFLsa2QoTI0pYENRZ7AQPxshYuq7jcouYd_0N1kn88C_35kziCHU5ow#countries

I think the data on world meters is accurate. It certainly correlates well with other sites like the COIVD Tracking project.

However, the 25 death per million is just (8250 / 330) ~ 25 since there are approximately 330 million people in the US.

The current mortality rate, given (8250 deaths / 306,997 confirmed cases) X 100 ~ 2.7%

I do agree though that the denominator in the above mortality rate calculation is still a big unknown and likely much larger. My wife's employer and her husband and children, a family of 5, have all had a terrible case of the flu, and it's possible it's COVID, but they can't get tested!

Originally Posted by Greg Shaffer

At last a little common sense comes around.....if you only double that 306,997 that would put the mortality rate at 1.35% and I have no doubt the real number of infections as yet unreported is a LOT higher than double the 306,997......and you are right it is still a glaringly big unknown. The real figure could be well under 1%

I've never disputed the fact that we don't know what the actual mortality rate is in the US. Keep in mind, however, the numerator in the mortality calculation has a certain degree of uncertainty as well. Even if the mortality rate is closer to 1%, that is still ten times deadlier than the seasonal flu. Couple that with the sheer number of people that will get the disease, even with extreme social mitigation, and it translates into a lot of dead people. The UofW IHME model is still predicting 100,000 deaths by June. That's in only two months. It could be as high as 180K or even as low as 40K based on their confidence intervals for an event that far out on the time horizon. Right now, a person is dying from COVID every 2.5 minutes in NY, and unfortunately, that is a disaster that is going to play out quite a few places still to come.

Originally Posted by Darian Rachal

James, why are you inclined to think that? I may be entirely mistaken, but I doubt there will be 100,000 deaths in the US; I suspect the 40,00 you mentioned might be a more realistic figure if that many. Ignoring the "models", what are you inclined to think?

I think NYC is not the last city that we will see under siege. Just about any large urban area is at risk. NYC is unique in the sense that it is dense and extremely cosmopolitan, which undoubtedly contributed to its problem. Still, any large urban area where there are lots of people is at risk for overwhelming their healthcare system. Look at it this way, NY (16,000), TX (7,000), FL (7,000), AL (6,000), and MI (4,000) are your 40,000 by themselves. Do you think that 45 other states can't add up to 60,000? Some states like AK are going to be minimal, but if the average is only 1,000 per state, we are at 85,000 in total. Being wrong, of course, will be welcome.

Originally Posted by Darian Rachal

James, do you honestly think this many people will die in these states? I'll admit, I could be way off base, but NY has about 3600(?) deaths at the present time. It's difficult for me to imagine it hitting 16,000.

Darian,

In NY, there have been more than 600 deaths a day. Someone in NY is dying of COVID 19 every 2.4 minutes. At that rate, they will quickly get to 16,000 deaths, actually in only three more weeks. For the US to get to 100,000 deaths, the UofW IHME model says we should have had 1,194 deaths in the US yesterday. We had 1,352.

FEMA just sent 85 more refrigerated trucks to NYC to serve as morgues. They are not doing this for anything other than a massive number of deaths from COVID.