Posts Made By: James Lacey

Originally Posted by Russ Carroll

Is that Michael Avenatti?

Seattle public schools are closing, layoffs are trending higher, and the stock market continues to decline.

Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, says COVID-19 is ten-times more lethal than the flu. Dr. Brian Mohan, the attending physician of the US Congress and the Supreme Court, briefs Senate Staff that he expects 70 to 150 million people in the US to contract the coronavirus.

I have to say, the Democrats are good at hoaxes and hysteria.

Trump's favorite way to manage a crisis is to gaslight and psychologically manipulate until no one is sure what the truth is anymore. The crisis usually abates or goes away, or we move onto the next Trumpian turmoil of the day. Well, that's not going to work this time, and it's exposing him as a feckless fraud and a slave to his insatiable ego.

Two presumptive coronavirus cases have been detected in my workplace this week. I work at a corporate headquarter typically populated by over three-thousand souls. We were all told today to start working from home and self-quarantine if we develop symptoms. Other companies in our area are doing the same such as Fidelity and Charles Schwab and others. Not to worry though, it's all just hysterics and over-blown fear-mongering.

Originally Posted by Russ Carroll

This asshole has been more worried about controlling the messaging rather than controlling the outbreak....Trump, not Richard.

I do not understand what compels some people to downplay the risk or make excuses for the response so far. It seems crystal clear that the feds have fumbled badly on our response.

Have you seen the story in the NY Times about the Seattle flu study that detected the outbreak back in December? In their own words, "it was everywhere." The CDC seems to have repressed or at least sat on the information. It's a fantastic tale of negligence.

Originally Posted by James Brown

After the data comes in, I doubt that the coronavirus will ultimately be determined to be 1% lethal (ten times more lethal than the flu).  That might equal US deaths of up to 1.5 million people.  I certainly hope that is not correct. 

I certainly hope it's not true either. My oldest son lives in Seattle, which is now an epicenter of the outbreak. He and his family are certainly feeling the effects of the epidemic. My son works for Amazon in operations and has to go into work still since they work on a closed network (no VPN access). He says the commute has never been better, but it still leaves him more exposed. My second oldest son is currently on the USS Eisenhower in the Red Sea while his wife and young children are weathering all of this alone back in Virginia. If my daughter-in-law does get sick, they will fly him home, but it's still quite a hardship for her. It just feels personal to me.

Originally Posted by Russ Carroll

This is too stupid to even warrant a response.

Last time I checked, the prerequisite for having an opinion is not that you have to be an expert in the field. If that were the case, then Trump would never be allowed to say anything.

Originally Posted by Russ Carroll

The ban on Europe is BS as he exempted the UK, which has its own outbreak in progress and is no better off than any other country except Italy.

Other than that, it was perfect.

The travel ban is dumb and a typical xenophobic knee-jerk reaction. Frankly, it smacks of Stephen Miller. The virus is already here. It was here as far back as December, and the CDC knew. All this travel ban is going to do is kill the airline industry. I'll be lucky to have a job still after all this is over. Not to worry though, I hear the public health expert Jared is in charge now, and he's googling coronavirus as we speak!

Originally Posted by James Brown

Hi Dave:

 I doubt that any other administration would have done much better.  I also doubt that this is the coup de grace that so many of Trump's enemies hope it is.  I would not be surprised if Trump's popularity increases as the crisis deepens.  Rallying together in the face of crisis is a very human and American behavior.

I'm shocked to hear you say you doubt any other administration could have done better. Right now, there is just not enough of anything, despite the federal government knowing this was coming since at least back in December. How do we know they knew it was coming? For many reasons, not the least of which is that Senators with advance knowledge of the impending disaster were selling their holdings in stocks to protect their wealth. Even worse, some of them were pushing the virus is all a Democratic hoax narrative as well. So, privately they are protecting their interests with inside knowledge and publicly telling all of us, it's all a hoax.

First and foremost, we still don't have enough testing, despite near-constant bullshitting and lying from the Trump administration, that anyone who wants a test can get a test and that millions of tests are going to be imminently available. If we had adequate testing and could quarantine and contact trace effectively, then a lot of the panic could have been forestalled. Why don't we have enough tests? One reason why is we did not use the diagnostic test available from the WHO. We could have used this test, despite any complaints about its short-comings, to fill the gap but we didn't. The lack of testing, even as of today, is a readily apparent failure.

Second, we don't have supplies. Hospitals, doctors, and nurses are already running out of everything. The delays in testing and stockpiling and producing critically needed equipment are going to rank as one of the most significant federal failures ever. It's going to make the intelligence failure of 9/11 look small in comparison. The number of lives lost and the economic suffering about to ensue is beyond what I think any of us can imagine. We are undoubtedly heading for a severe recession. We will be lucky if it does not turn into a depression.

Third, Trump's bungling and lying and gaslighting have fueled the panic that has led to stock market crashes and social fear. Instead of calm, steady leadership, we have a man who's indifference to knowledge, truth, and government squandered weeks that could have allowed us to prepare. His incessant neediness and vanity continuously get in the way of a rational response. Just yesterday, Trump bullshitted us about treatments becoming available for the coronavirus via the FDA. Yet another easily verifiable lie to throw on top of what is now an impossibly huge heap of them.

Lastly, you genuinely are a pollyanna if you think Trump's popularity is going to improve. Massive job losses have already occurred in all of our service industries. Many more job losses are coming, and they will ripple through the economy. Once Trump loses the only bulwark that has kept his approval high, his reelection chances will become almost zero. Add in hospitals that are jammed with the sick and dying, and the GOP should prepare itself not only to lose the WH but the entire congress as well.

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

 

And while you claim that nobody was doing anything, Trump was already closing off the air travel lanes from the countries who were most probable to bring the virus here, which everyone now, all nations are doing, against your criticisms of racism and xenophobia about it.

After that you got on here and screeched about how terrible it was that he was closing down travel from EU, and you told us that he didn't know what he was doing and that EU wasn't the problem. That VERY day you said he was totally stupid for doing it, the death Rate in the EU spiked massively quadrupling the prior days number of deaths.

Once again, you are only arguing with your fervid imagination. I never criticized the travel ban with China, nor have I ever leveled the charge of xenophobia or racism about it. I even said it was the correct thing to do at the time and that many countries did so at about the same time too. Regarding the EU ban, the only criticism I leveled was that it was done suddenly and haphazardly and caused a panic that jammed our airports full of travelers returning from COVID hotspots so that they could efficiently share it. The only way they could have screwed that up more royally is if they had sprayed coronavirus from the fire sprinklers. I know that you will never quit arguing with straw men no matter how many times it's pointed out to you, but it is essential to set the record straight.

Originally Posted by James Brown

We shall see.

Jim,

You and I are lucky. We have had high-paying, almost executive-level jobs our entire professional careers. As a result, we both have plenty of money saved, mortgage-free homes, and are flush with cash and lots of qualified investments that will weather and recover from this crisis. We are not the norm; we are in the top one-tenth of one percent of the socio-economic status. We will be fine, assuming we are not one of the unlucky ones in our age group who succumbs to this virus. The vast majority of Americans are going to suffer emotionally and economically because of this crisis. Many are going to blame Trump.

The crisis was unavoidable. However, the bungling of its management is readily apparent and was avoidable. The intelligence community was sounding the alarms since at least January, and the Trump administration ignored them. In the words of one intelligence professional, "The red sirens were flashing, and no one paid attention." Once the gross negligence of the management of this crisis becomes well-known, it's going to be a huge political blow to Trump. The conservative Lincoln project has already produced devastating ads using Trump's words and actions to accentuate his incompetence. Michael Bloomberg has pledged to go after Trump in swing-states on this issue. Did you see how Trump lashed out at Peter Alexander yesterday when tossed a soft-ball question that he should have been able to answer quickly? Trump is the worst person imaginable to be in charge right now.

Hospitals, doctors, and medical professionals of all kinds have canceled all non-elective procedures. As a result, they are rapidly losing money and approaching insolvency. One of the largest hospitals in our area lost $39 million in a month. Some of the providers in their group have only a few months before they will have to close their doors. My wife's medical office shut-down and furloughed all workers. The point is now its not just the service industry getting hit, other sectors of the economy are shutting-down too.

The initial instinct of people might be to rally together. However, this crisis will unfold over many months, well into November and beyond.  Additionally, there are many unrealized negative consequences to come. Trump's bungling of this crisis is going to reshape politics and public policy, too, in ways that only a few years ago would have been unimaginable. The irony is that this crisis and Trump's mismanagement may just usher in a wave of progressiveness that will significantly alter our political landscape and the nation's will to implement policies like public health care.

Originally Posted by James Brown

In other words, we have pretty much implemented all of the suggestions in the "Hammer" graph plus the closing of public dining in restaurants.  Curious what some of you are experiencing.

Jim

I have been WFH for two weeks now. I expect it to last for months, and my job easily transitions to WFH, and my company has the infrastructure to allow it. On the other hand, my wife's medical office shut-down and furloughed all workers. The same thing is happening for all non-essential medical care such as dentistry, all over the nation. My work involuntarily cut our pay by 15% and stopped all 401(k) matching for a total of a 21% hit to my bottom line. These changes will not hurt us unduly, we are lucky, but I know from experience not to expect any of that to return to normal once the crisis passes. There will always be a reason they cannot replace that lost income immediately. I'm most likely looking at a significant loss in revenue for years. At one point on Friday, our stock dropped to $0.50. It closed around $4 by the end of the day. A few weeks ago, it was $25. Many airlines have cut worker pay by 50% and furloughed non-essential workers.

Social distancing, work from home, and closing of public spaces is all taking place. We won't know for weeks though how effective it has been or if done soon enough. Red states like Texas did not take it seriously enough or act quickly enough. The traditional small-government policy of red states is not serving them well in this crisis. They are too reluctant to implement restrictions that voters and business leaders will see as draconian and an overreach. Texas chose not to expand Medicaid, and we have one of the highest uninsured rates in the country. We are also one of the most populous states in the country, so it doesn't take much imagination to see where it's headed. In short, we are a hotbed for the virus. I fully expect Houston, San Antonio, and DFW to become the next NYC.

Originally Posted by James Brown

Maybe a week late, but the healthcare system does not appear to be overwhelmed.  I get that the next couple of weeks are going to be the real test.

Jim

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

If current rates of the increase in positive cases continue, and there is no reason to expect they won't accelerate, we are looking at tens of millions if not hundreds of millions of people sick by the end of the year. The fatality rate in the US is holding steady at 1%. I hope what I'm seeing based on publicly available data is not true.