Originally Posted by James Lacey
What he's doing is entirely bonkers. It will not bring back manufacturing to the US or lower prices. These reciprocal tariffs are also equally insane. We must import stuff because we don't make it or have enough of it. Coffee from Central and South America and lumber from Canada come to mind. Even if we opened every national park for logging, we could never produce enough lumber to sustain our building and construction commerce. So, imposing tariffs there merely because you see a trade deficit is simple-minded and naive. Every case of trade needs to be examined and considered on its merit. The tariffs are not even "reciprocal." Instead, they are being imposed simply because there is a trade deficit, regardless of whether or not that trade imbalance is logical or benefits us. A trade imbalance does not inherently mean the other country cheats us. This policy is reckless and careless and will cause unnecessary pain.
Hi James,
It is not only bonkers, but it has been done without any intelligent or human input.
It has been shown that, if you put the phrase "balance bilateral trade deficits" into AI engines, the administration's approach (or some close approximation) is what you get. That is the case with ChatGPT, Gemini, Grok, and Claude. If you put the phrase into Grok, you get the EXACT formula the White House used. In other news, Grok is the AI platform owned by... Elon Musk.
You can see how stupid their "approach" was. They put a tariff on Heard Island, which is uninhabited, except by penguins, I wonder what they will export to the US, and a 29% tariff on Norfolk Island, which has no manufacturing or exports to the US! Their only industry is tourism.
The way these tariffs have been "calculated" was first figured out by Author and economist James Surowiecki. This is his explanation:
"Just figured out where these fake tariff rates come from. They didn't actually calculate tariff rates + non-tariff barriers, as they say they did. Instead, for every country, they just took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country's exports to us.
So we have a $17.9 billion trade deficit with Indonesia. Its exports to us are $28 billion. $17.9/$28 = 64%, which Trump claims is the tariff rate Indonesia charges us. What extraordinary nonsense this is"