Posts Made By: James Lacey

Originally Posted by Greg Shaffer

So much? Given all accounts I have seen say that his support within the GOP is nearly 90% I have no clue what you are talking about

No one doubts that his support among his base is incredibly high. It is not, however, total and complete inside the GOP, and he does face severe opposition from within his party. As I said before, this is almost unprecedented.

Have you seen this 6-page letter that Trump wrote to Pelosi by the way? I always thought that Trump was not mentally stable enough to indeed, weather a real scandal, but this letter is over the top! It is the equivalent of a child kicking and screaming on the ground because they didn't get their way. Truly amazing stuff.

Originally Posted by James Brown

Yes, Trump's margin in the key swing states was incredibly thin.  This is the only question that matters, as I've noted from time to time.  Can Trump hold enough of OH, FL, PA, WI, and MI to win again?  Time will tell - it is an incredibly tight window for him.

Bush's win did not hinge "entirely" on the SCOTUS decision in Bush v. Gore.  I fondly recall from one of our first AM politics forums discussions ever (maybe 2003?) on this topic.  The FL press and a consortium of experts completed the re-count to the best of their ability and concluded that Bush did in actuality win.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bush_v._Gore#Recount_by_media_organizations   Obviously, it was very close.  J


https://www.nytimes.com/2001/11/12/us/examining-vote-overview-study-disputed-florida-ballots-finds-justices-did-not.html

You are correct, and I remember this factoid too now that you have refreshed my memory. As you said, it was incredibly close, though, and if held again a day later, that election could have easily gone the other way. The same is true for 2016. Still, threading the electoral college needle while losing the popular vote is not a winning strategy in Presidential politics. What's the old saying? Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then?

Originally Posted by Greg Shaffer

Another way to say he responds in kind to those who profess to hate him.....his ability to avoid sugar coating things for his enemies is not a bad thing

It's more like how a narcissistic sociopath lashes out with rage and contempt with they realize they cannot control the situation that is the source of their ire. They inevitably try to belittle others to make themselves appear superior. The letter is indeed a sad display and spectacle and typifies what we have seen from Trump many times. The mental health professionals call it to deny, attack, and reverse the role of victim and offender. It's all too standard behavior of mentally disturbed people like Trump. The truly amazing thing is that White House counsel even allowed this to happen. Trump must have been adamant and persistent about this course of action.

Originally Posted by Greg Shaffer

The margin by which he won in the EC was not anything like threading a needle.....it was by a wide margin.....304 to 227 LOL.....thats a pretty big needle Guess both of you forgot that glaring fact to make it sound like it was  close call LOL

You either don't understand the analogy or don't acknowledge that Trump won the rust-belt states by extremely razor-thin margins. Regardless of the electoral outcome, which by the way, ranked number 46 out of 58, Trump barely won in 2016.

Originally Posted by Greg Shaffer

Well we already know you wish the popular vote counted so I can understand why you would like to like to claim it matters. The fact remains it was not close in the EC where it counts. Your vision supports your hope that he wont win again so its understandable.

I think you misunderstand what I'm saying.

1. Trump was highly unpopular in 2016.
2. Despite his unpopularity, he managed to pull off a stunning electoral college win by narrowly winning some key states.
3. Losing the popular vote and winning the electoral college is a sporadic event at best.
4. Trump continues to be highly unpopular, and he has done little to change his popularity. If anything, he's made it worse, and it's not clear he can do anything else to change this situation.
5. The chances of Trump losing the popular vote again, which he will almost surely do, and still winning the electoral college are meager at best. If it were to happen, it would be a statistical anomaly like we have never seen in Presidential elections. It is not a winning strategy.

That's it. No more no less.

Originally Posted by Greg Shaffer

Guess that is the difference between us. If you come at me head on you will be met head on and it wont be sugar coated to avoid hurting your feelings. I both like and dislike this about Trump. I respect it in that I think the same way but I also cringe at times when I know a particular slight should be beneath him.

If you read that letter and all you see is a fiery response to his critics, then I don't know what to say. It's not sharply worded or describing things honestly without unpleasant details. Instead, it's just batsh!t insane crazy. When history looks back on the Trump presidency, I think one of the things that will be shocking is just how incompetent and unfit for the office he is. And this letter will be exhibit A.

Originally Posted by James Brown

4.  Be twice the beneficiary of historically, legendarily, horrible D candidates who run historically, legendarily, bad campaigns.

Trump does not have a lot of control over #4,  but he'll be hitting 1-3 and other factors hard as the campaign winds up.  If those approve/disapprove lines in the Gallup poll (or the nearly identical 538 or RCP poll averages) cross, look for some serious panicking on the left. 

Jim

Number 4 is a primary concern for many, like myself, who much dislike Trump and his policies. All I can say about impeachment is that I think Trump deserved it and that if what he did is not impeachable, then nothing is impeachable. Given that impeachment is the only constitutional means that we have to hold an out-of-control executive in check, I don't see that the House Democrats had any choice; political consequences be damned. Besides, it's not like impeachment stops ongoing investigations. The SDNY and other congressional committees are still investigating, and if Trump doesn't put a stop to his abuse of power and corruption, he may find himself impeached again. Of this, I'm confident, his scandals are far from over and that does not bode well for his political future.

The thing about the 538 poll, which happens to be one of the most trustworthy in my humble opinion since it is an aggregation and average of lots of surveys, is that it has been remarkably the same. Trump has been at an almost steady -10% approval rating regardless of everything that has happened. I don't think that will turn into a positive change for Trump anytime soon. He is his own worst enemy. For example, who would ever believe that insulting the deceased John Dingell at a political rally in his home state of Michigan would be a good idea? Only Trump could show up to such a rally and suggest that one of Michigan's favorite sons was in hell and then also question the loyalty of John's wife, who now occupies his congressional seat.

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

I'm sorry I was late to the party. (I was out doing cartwheels in the cul de sac.) 
The bastard's been impeached! He didn't want it on his resume. Now it's there in indelible ink! 
Now Pelosi is upping the ante on Moscow Mitch. She may withhold sending the articles of impeachment to the senate unless the pricks agree to a fair trial with witnesses, ie Bolton and company. Talk about turning up the heat...
PS  Fun fact: You know what the public support was for impeaching Nixon? 19%...

Merry Impeachmas, Rod!

Just think, the Republicans could have had two more nay votes if two Republican House members had not left office because of felony convictions and corruption.

Originally Posted by Greg Shaffer

I read it.....and I agree with it in its entirety.....not a thing in it that is not factual or unwarranted. That clear enough? I have seen some tweets from him that I cringed at. Not that letter.

The letter is full of false claims and outright falsehoods. By the way, it looks like WH counsel was cut entirely out of the authorship of this letter. That explains a lot. 

Originally Posted by James Brown

This emphasizes my observation though, that something truly big is happening in public sentiment if the impeachment causes those numbers to move more in Trump's favor. 

I agree. If those numbers move in Trump's favor, it will signal a severe shift. Heck, if they push the other way, it will be a significant shift. What's remarkable is how steady they have been. I believe though that the Democrats should not fear a political backlash. Instead, they should move forward and follow their conscience. All this political prognostication of impeachment being the doom of Democrat's prospects in 2020 is overblown. This soothsaying also ignores the flip-side of the argument, and that is that impeachment and exposure of Trump's wrongdoing do Trump's cause political harm as well. In other words, both sides are affected negatively by the impeachment. Believe me. Democrats will be using Trump's actions, words, and deeds in negative ads profusely. And Trump has provided a treasure trove of material. My main point is that while the Democrats may pay some price for impeachment, it pales in comparison to the pound of flesh Democrats are going to extract from Trump using his bad behavior.