Professor Allan Lichtman Stands By His Prediction: Immediately Faces Violent Threats From MAGAPosted By Maurice Clark |
Hi James,Originally Posted by James Brown
I get it that I am fully and obnoxiously beating the polling drum, but Rs have been making inroads with Latino voters for years. Here is one example, there are many more from many pollsters. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/poll-harris-trump-democrats-advantage-latino-voters-continues-shrink-rcna172686
It seems to me that you guys are going with your gut instincts and I am relying on the polls. We'll see who was right in a week, or maybe a few weeks.
You could be right about the polls, it really depends on how they have tried to account for trump supporters. They missed out badly in 2016 and again in 2020. Here is an interesting look at the problem. https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Items/Oct30-4.html
However, as always, polls are only a guide, it comes down to turnout. Which campaign does a better job of getting people to actually vote. Either way, I think it will come down to a few 1000 votes is a few states.
Cheers,
Maurice
