Originally Posted by James Brown
The Real Clear Politics averages were quite good this cycle. Shortly before the election the RCP “no toss up” map showed Trump winnning all of the swing states. This earned them the derision of the New York Times and shockingly, Wikipedia of all places then censored the RCP polling averages briefly. A lot of stupid and shameful poll denying by the NYT this time around, and I think their overt bias propagated in the media to the point it affected the general outlook of our small community here.
I meant his ability to predict the future is no worse than everyone else in this forum.
As I recall, you and Rod are were the only ones who publicly predicted a Trump win. If I had been backed into a corner to make a prediction, I would have said Kamala by a thread because I thought it was a toss-up at best. I did not predict, however, that so many people would vote simply because they wanted change and viewed Trump as the person to achieve that change. I thought that surely people did not want four more years of Trump chaos and insanity, but I was dead wrong about that.
It was actually a close election. If Kamala had won WI, MI, and PA, she would have won but lost those states by only 0.9, 1.4, and 1.7 points, respectively. 538 analyzed how close the election was, and by historical standards, it was very close. For example, his electoral college win ranks 14th out of the last 20 Presidential elections. His popular vote win is shrinking daily as more and more final votes are tallied. By the way, I fully expect Rich to jump in here and scream about how decisive Trump's win was, but by historical standards, it's not a blowout.
Fortunately, it looks like Trump's White House will be dysfunctional and riddled with toxic office politics that will cripple it to a large degree. Someone on his team has already leaked "love letters" written to Trump by an aide named Natalie Harp. Her nickname is "The Human Printer" because she follows Trump around with a portable printer and battery and feeds him flattering stories from right-wing sites like Gateway Pundit and One American News, which she used to work for. Presumably, the leakers don't like the unprecedented access she has to Trump and her ability to feed him right-wing fringe material and conspiracy theories from the internet. So they have exposed her publicly to try and shame her and affect her ability to continue. Trump is reportedly mega-mad about it and even referred to Maggie Habermann of the NYT, who first reported the story as "Magot Hagerman." And did you see Trump's Thanksgiving day "mean tweet?" Yeah, it will be another four years of dysfunction and chaos.