Posts Made By: Patrick Keafer

Richard,

I thought you would appreciate this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tqc1KtHauSg

Jeb sure is making it easy for his opponents by adopting the Richard position of "I'd still invade Iraq". I'm not sure I can support him unless he clarifies. Iraq was a blunder based on really bad intelligence.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2015/05/12/jeb-bush-facing-conservative-ire-for-comments-on-iraq-war/?hpid=z6

There were a couple of good articles from the admittedly liberal Washington Post over the past several days, but they detail findings of a consultant of Marco Rubio's. Essentially, Republicans have a steep hill to climb in the electorate thanks in part to the hostile rhetoric from some towards immigrants and their families.

Here is the money quote:

"...if the 2016 nominee gets no better than Romney’s 17 percent of the nonwhite vote, he or she would need 65 percent of the white vote to win, a level achieved in modern times only by Ronald Reagan in his 1984 landslide. Bush’s 2004 winning formula — 26 percent of the nonwhite vote and 58 percent of the white vote — would be a losing formula in 2016, given population changes."

Essentially, white voters make up 89% of Republican party voters, but white voters as a percentage of total VOTERS only make up 70% of the elecorate. This is down by about 15% since RR and is expected to continue to decline.

And for those falsely comforted by our friends talking points on talk radio:

"In one example, he looks at the dominance of the Republican Party at the state level in states that Romney won in 2012. The party holds between 53 percent and 87 percent of the state senate seats in those places, according to Ayres’s calculations. Some Republicans, he argues, look at those numbers and say, what’s the problem? But Ayres notes that those states still leave the Republicans well short of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency."

As conservatives, we need to tone down our rhetoric and lead on immigration reform. We should allow people to earn a right to stay here by paying penalties and institution the guest worker program that our companies need.

Everyone else needs to get their head out of the sand or face the potential reality: Democrat Presidencies.



Sources: http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/a-rubio-campaign-blueprint-for-all-the-world-to-see/2015/05/23/6711c5ba-00ca-11e5-8b6c-0dcce21e223d_story.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2015/05/26/the-hard-demographic-truth-facing-republicans-in-2016-in-2-charts/?tid=hpModule_f8335a3c-868c-11e2-9d71-f0feafdd1394&hpid=z10

http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/fa5f40034b/donald-trump-pow?_cc=__d___&_ccid=y03erf.nrypmy

For the record, I did not. But I watched a lot of clips in the middle of the night of the key exchanges and analysis afterward on both Fox and MSNBC.

The perception seems to be Trump got skewered by the questions. Rubio and Kasich looked good. Do you agree?

I've been mildly supportive of this diplomatic deal with Iran as a starting point but some things being leaked are completely ridiculous:

The agreement in question diverges from normal procedures by allowing Tehran to employ its own experts and equipment in the search for evidence of activities it has consistently denied - trying to develop nuclear weapons.

Olli Heinonen, who was in charge of the Iran probe as deputy IAEA director general from 2005 to 2010, said he could think of no similar concession with any other country.

Is the US and UN so desperate for a deal they have lost all common sense?


http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/I/IRAN_NUCLEAR?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-08-19-13-06-05

Many more to go.

Rick Perry drops out of presidential race

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/rick-perry-drops-out-presidential-race-213569

I can't wait until its Trump's turn.

It certainly looks like Putin got the best of Obama again. Not only is Russia now helping in Syria, they now have a diplomatic foothold in Iraq and are sharing intelligence, without the cooperation of the United States. Could Russian troops in Iraq and Iran to "help" with Isis be far behind?

For the second time this month, Russia moved to expand its political and military influence in the Syria conflict and left the United States scrambling, this time by reaching an understanding, announced on Sunday, with Iraq, Syria and Iran to share intelligence about the Islamic State.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/28/world/middleeast/iraq-agrees-to-share-intelligence-on-isis-with-russia-syria-and-iran.html

So far, this President has been wholly responsible for Russia's resurgence on the world stage. Certainly looks like another cold war...

Ted Cruz in the debate last night:

Cruz: I have never supported legalization...
Rubio: Do you rule it out?
Cruz: I have never supported legalization, and I do not intend to support legalization.


Ted Cruz 2013 Version:

"I don't want immigration reform to fail. I want immigration reform to pass. So I would urge people of good faith on both sides of the aisle: If the objective is to pass common-sense immigration reform that secures the borders, that improves legal immigration, and that allows those who are here illegally to come in out of the shadows, then we should look for areas of bipartisan agreement, and compromise to come together. And this amendment, I believe, if this amendment were to pass, the chances of this bill passing into law would increase dramatically."

Cruz also affirmed at the time that his proposed changes to the existing bill would grant eligibility for permanent legal status to millions:
"The eleven million people who are here illegally would be granted legal status once the border is secure...and indeed, they would be eligible for permanent legal residency."

Sources:

http://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2015/12/16/fact-check-while-suggesting-rubio-lied-cruz-is-wrong-on-own-immigration-record-n2094392
http://hotair.com/archives/2015/11/13/ted-cruz-releases-immigration-plan-suspend-issuance-of-h-1b-visas-for-six-months-halt-legal-immigration-if-unemployment-is-high/

Putin just endorsed Trump! I guess this makes sense considering Trump's proposals mirror some of Russia's tactics (banning muslims, detention camps, killing families, etc). He must be proud!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/putin-no-major-gaps-with-washington-over-efforts-to-end-syria-conflict/2015/12/17/a178255e-a431-11e5-8318-bd8caed8c588_story.html?tid=pm_pop_b