Posts Made By: David Cotterell

Originally Posted by Greg Shaffer

The whole media/liberal promoted panic over this virus is ridiculous.....

Soooooooo politically driven.....

Anybody recall the swine flu from about 10 years ago? 60 million infected, 300,000 hospitalized.....The sky wasnt falling then and the conservatives didnt try to make political hay with it at all even though it was under Obama's watch.....The fear mongering is beyond ridiculous now in comparison......

Please stop comparing COVID to the seasonal flu.... It is Medically wrong, Biologically wrong, Scientifically wrong, DANGEROUSLY wrong.


Read below from a medical doctor:  (The TL;DR is that the Corona Viruses (there are two strains) are new and humans have no natural resistance)  

"Feeling confused as to why Coronavirus is a bigger deal than Seasonal flu? Here it is in a nutshell. I hope this helps. Feel free to share this to others who don’t understand...

It has to do with RNA sequencing.... I.e. genetics.

Seasonal flu is an “all human virus”. The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year... you get immunity two ways...through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot.

Novel viruses, come from animals.... the WHO tracks novel viruses in animals, (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1) (birds in the case of the Spanish flu). But once, one of these animal viruses mutates, and starts to transfer from animals to humans... then it’s a problem, Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity.. the RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn’t human, and the human immune system doesn’t recognize it so, we can’t fight it off.

Now.... sometimes, the mutation only allows transfer from animal to human, for years it’s only transmission is from an infected animal to a human before it finally mutates so that it can now transfer human to human... once that happens..we have a new contagion phase. And depending on the fashion of this new mutation, thats what decides how contagious, or how deadly it’s gonna be..

H1N1 was deadly....but it did not mutate in a way that was as deadly as the Spanish flu. It’s RNA was slower to mutate and it attacked its host differently, too.

Fast forward.

Now, here comes this Coronavirus... it existed in animals only, for nobody knows how long...but one day, at an animal market, in Wuhan China, in December 2019, it mutated and made the jump from animal to people. At first, only animals could give it to a person... But here is the scary part.... in just TWO WEEKS it mutated again and gained the ability to jump from human to human. Scientists call this quick ability, “slippery”

This Coronavirus, not being in any form a “human” virus (whereas we would all have some natural or acquired immunity). Took off like a rocket. And this was because, Humans have no known immunity...doctors have no known medicines for it.

And it just so happens that this particular mutated animal virus, changed itself in such a way the way that it causes great damage to human lungs..

That’s why Coronavirus is different from seasonal flu, or H1N1 or any other type of influenza.... this one is slippery AF. And it’s a lung eater...And, it’s already mutated AGAIN, so that we now have two strains to deal with, strain s, and strain L....which makes it twice as hard to develop a vaccine.

We really have no tools in our shed, with this. History has shown that fast and immediate closings of public places has helped in the past pandemics. Philadelphia and Baltimore were reluctant to close events in 1918 and they were the hardest hit in the US during the Spanish Flu.

Factoid: Henry VIII stayed in his room and allowed no one near him, till the Black Plague passed...(honestly...I understand him so much better now). Just like us, he had no tools in his shed, except social isolation...

And let me end by saying....right now it’s hitting older folks harder... but this genome is so slippery...if it mutates again (and it will). Who is to say, what it will do next.

Be smart folks... acting like you’re unafraid is so not sexy right now.

#flattenthecurve. Stay home folks... and share this to those that just are not catching on. 🤓

Dave, hibernating in my home in order to, first, not catch it and, second, to not spread it...

Richard:  This comment which you bolded as evidence that the doctor is wrong and that corona viruses have been around for a long time ---> " (The TL;DR is that the Corona Viruses (there are two strains) are new and humans have no natural resistance) is not from the doctor.  It is from me, trying to sum up what is in the long article.

Let me re-write it so that it is 100% true:  " (The TL;DR is that these particular Corona Viruses (there are two strains) are new and humans have no natural resistance).

So, my error led to your error. 

The gist of the situation is the fact of the lack of natural resistance we have against COVID...because it is brand new.....

And Covid does damage the lungs.  They fill with fluid and become pneumonic.  The damage is temporary if you recover and pretty much permanent if you don't...... but it is damage.  

The doctor's statement is correct.  

Stay home.

Dave

Social Media.  So much more pervasive than even 10 years ago...  

I also wonder how there is any other way that a doctor can deliver information to the public than to give the medical truth - "Virus A causes symptoms X, Y and Z.  Death rates are .....  Survival rates are... prevention measures are α, β, γ..."  etc.   Should the truth be sugar coated to prevent 'panic'?  Should some information be withheld to prevent 'panic'?  

In my own opinion what you call 'panic' is simply civil authorities taking measures to "flatten the curve" which is the gold-plated, #1 method to minimize the impact of this pandemic.  

Dave

Mortality is higher than previously calculated...

Dave

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

BTW, you said that mortality rates are HIGHER than previously calculated, then you put up a graph that indicates the exact opposite of what you just said there.

If I look at the graph, then I see that previously, around Feb. 11, the graph shows the mortality rate at 23%.

I look at your graph again, and I see that on Feb 13, it is around 13%.

I look again, and according to your graph, on Feb 19, it drops to about 9%.  

I look again, and according to your graph, on or about Feb. 24, it drops to about 7%.

I look again and on Mar. 1, its now slightly lower, about 6%.  

How is that in your words, HIGHER than previously calculated?  

Can you please explain?  

It strikes me that your graph indicates mortality is lower than previously calculated.  

The blue dots are the new mortality rates calculated in the article.  The red dots are the older W.H.O. mortality rates.  For each date the blue mortality rate is significantly higher.  Thus, it is as I said: The new mortality rates are higher than the old ones....

The curves are both declining over time because the sample size (number of cases) is increasing and the mortality rates are trending closer and closer to their 'true' value, asymptotically..

Are you not alarmed that by either metric the mortality rates of COVID are tens of times higher than those of the influenzas we are used to...?   

If 50 000 (ballpark number) people die of influenza in America in a given year and the mortality rate is 0.2% then how many people caught influenza?  The answer is 100 Million.

Now, if 100 million Americans catch this Covid and the mortality rate is 5% how many will die?  The answer is 5 MILLION.. That's one entire Alabama of dead people.. 

Supplementary question for you:  How many intensive care beds are there in the entire USA?  The figure is around 6 000 (google it)....   there or only about 1 000 000 hospital beds of any sort at all in the USA...

Now think:  6 000 vs 5 000 000.   Or even 900 000 vs 5 000 000.... And what about other folks who need ICU and general hospital ccare?  Heart attack victims, burn victims, car accident victims...Babies born, illnesses....  It would be an astonishingly inconceivable disaster. 

So everything is being shut down, restaurants closed except for take-out.  All gatherings of more than 50 people cancelled.  No unnecessary travel.  International travel shut down.  Canada USA border closed (soon...) Everyone SHELTER IN PLACE..  Everyone, sick or well...And we might be able to keep the number of cases of Covid down to a manageable level.. 

Or you and your colleagues here and on the internet and in political life can keep on with the whataboutism relating to influenza deaths, and continue saying the Covid pandemic is hype, overblown, politically motivated and delay, waffle and hide behind rhetoric.   

Dave  

Originally Posted by James Brown

Hi Dave:

I hope Russ and James read this post.  I have been surprised and pleased (almost shocked) at how completely and willingly the social distancing efforts are being implemented in my neck of the woods.  You will probably recall that I was extremely skeptical two weeks ago.  Wrong again on my part!

Your estimate of the number of ICU beds in the US is wrong by at least 10x.  I expect a typo on your part.  We have at least 60k ICU beds and about 160,000 ventilators available.  We have more ICU beds per capita than any other country in the world.  Canada is in 2nd place, with about 1/2 the ICU beds we have, per capita.  Will our relatively large supply of ICU beds and ventilators be enough?  Hope so.  Hope so for your sake too.

https://www.sccm.org/Communications/Critical-Care-Statistics
https://www.niskanencenter.org/is-u-s-health-care-well-equipped-for-the-coronavirus/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/13/coronavirus-numbers-we-really-should-be-worried-about/

One central point that Richard and Greg have made, in my view, is that this medical crisis is being exploited for political gain.  This always happens.  The opinion pieces attacking the Trump administration are legion, and in my opinion predominantly unfair.  The administration response to crisis can always be second guessed, and of course Trump's demeanor makes it easy.  But, the administration has in fact  taken dramatic action.  I doubt that any other administration would have done much better.  I also doubt that this is the coup de grace that so many of Trump's enemies hope it is.  I would not be surprised if Trump's popularity increases as the crisis deepens.  Rallying together in the face of crisis is a very human and American behavior.

Of course, time will tell what the political fall-out might be.  And since I am wrong about a lot, take my guess with a grain of salt!


Jim 

Jim, thanks.  I got it wrong.  Seems to be a total of around 95 000 ICU beds.  I think I posted a number from an answer to a google question which i made which must have been for one particular type of ICU bed as broken down at this site...  https://www.aha.org/statistics/fast-facts-us-hospitals .   I should have been more diligent...  The number of beds in all I did get correct as being in the 900 000 range....

Much of my main point remains intact, though.  Unless we slow the virus  down drastically the hospitals will be overwhelmed. And comparing Covid to 'normal' influenzas in order to delay/diminish immediate action is a criminally irresponsible act.   The draconian, unprecedented methods needed to slow the virus down shouldn't have been politicized (but they were, by both sides for opposite reasons - "Waaah Trump is farking it up" vs. "Waah the libs are exaggerating the crisis"...) and, perhaps going forward, they will not be....AS you say, pulling together in a crisis...

This crisis will be with us for many months - a vaccine might be on board by the end of this year...maybe....This is easily the biggest thing to hit the world since WW 2....

Shelter in place, everyone...

Dave

Asshole Wealthy Person does asshole things to remain a rich asshole while Rome burns......

That gets the partisanship out of the way.

Dave

Please read.

The Hammer and the Dance

We must all do more, much more or millions will die.....WW2 levels of death....

Dave

I'm saying read the article. Really dig in there.

 Every day there is a delay in implementing complete isolation (the 'hammer' in the article) the death toll will increase...

US WW2 military/soldier deaths about 400 000.      

If 20 million Americans get the virus and the death rate is 2%.......there you are....400 000 dead.

And the longer we delay effective social distancing the longer we will all have to practise it...

For my country, Canada the WW2 dead totalled 42 000.  So, if 2 million Canadians (out of 37 million) get it, 40 000 will die...

That's what I meant by WW2 levels of death...Could 20 million Americans get the virus?  That's only about 6 or 7% of the population.... 


Dave

I am in a self-imposed isolation with an asterisk.  *Four days ago I went out food shopping to get myself to the 3-week level of food preparedness.  When I run low I'll do another very careful run to the grocery store....  or have food delivered....

My ladyfriend, Heather, is immune-compromised due to the drugs she takes for an ongoing ailment.  She is also in lockdown mode, more severe than mine. I took a food order from her four days ago and left it at her door, waved at her in the window and drove home.. We are not visiting each other.  We Skype.... 

All my friends and greater social circle are staying home.  SElf-isolation is the norm in Ontario now...

Everything is shut here in Ontario, restaurants are take-out only.  Any sort of gathering, even as small as 4 or 5 people, is pretty much banned, either by the Provincial State of Emergency Law or by peer pressure or self-regulation.  So no movies, plays, sports, courts, municipal offices, you name it....schools....church.....everything is shut.  Food stores, drug stores, banks etc. are open but with restrictions.... Retail stores are shutting down bit by bit...  The State of Emergency law shut all hair salons, nail salons, tatoo parlors etc. right away until further notice..  Marriage licenses are no longer being issued for certain dates in the near future...

I expect a Federal Edict any day now that everyone across the country must stay home except to travel to specific essential jobs like police, fire, food store etc.The rest of us only will be able to go out to go food and drugstore shopping or to the doctor........

I am fortunate here in my rural home with my nearest neighbours hundreds of feet away.  There are two hiking trails nearby which I could take for exercise...My entire township, 15x10 miles in size has only 4000 people...farm country.

I'm just getting my backyard observatory up and running from the long winter shut-down.  I have a good well, unlimited internet, a couple of streaming services for movies and TV shows... hundreds of books, music CD's etc.  

Assuming I could get food delivery on a regular, on-going basis I could quite easily be by myself for months, if it comes to that..

I have no desire to take risks to find out if a 68-year-old former 30-year smoker (now smoke-free for 19 years) in otherwise excellent health can conquer this virus....

And, finally, I am quite aware that as a retired guy I am luckier than those who will lose income/jobs as we go through this, or who live in crowded apartment buildings and dense cities..  It appears that the Federal and Provincial governments are preparing to give out some $ to those who are affected the most.  This may be the case in the US, too, I've read....

Remember, our parents and/or grandparents were asked to fight a war.  We have been asked to sit on our couch.  

Stay home!

Dave