Posts Made By: James C Chandler Jr

According to DHS, leftwingers are equally unsavory except that unhinged leftwingers are Mad Hackers rather than Mad Bombers. Theodore Kaczynski didn't get the memo .

http://www.fas.org/irp/eprint/leftwing.pdf

Courtesy of DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis, yet another compendium of USA thought-criminals:

http://www.fas.org/irp/eprint/lexicon.pdf

jess tauber said:

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/05/090519134843.htm

Jess Tauber

Thanks Jess

Is it smart to to be skeptical of psychic prophets, but dumb to be skeptical of computer prophets? Am not being critical. The silicon divining of chicken entrails is admirable research. Maybe there is something to it. Would be nice if computers can some day tell us the future.

My SOLE gripe is when unproven modeling techniques are used to forcibly take my money and restrict my freedom. Folks wanting to bet the farm on unproven models.

It has been observed that a successful psychic prophet will:

* Make vague predictions which MANY future events can resemble.

* Make far-future predictions after the prophet has made his money and is dead and gone.

Am not accusing that climate modeling intentionally borrows from the psychic prophet's toolbox, but the nature of the topic naturally bestows similar advantages.

Here is my infallible bullet-proof long-term prediction: Many bad things will happen in the era between 2050 and 2100.

The models must be tested. Now that predictions have been specified, it would not be scientific to meddle with the parameters until the after model has been validated. What scientist would set up apparatus, start an experiment, and then keep changing the experimental conditions throughout the trial?

Am not suggesting that we should wait for climate armageddon before giving a model final validation, but currently have the models been validated at all?

Since some modelers want to bet the farm on the models, perhaps it would be instructive to use a smaller sum of money as a confidence indicator.

http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20090223/314648main_graph_temp_lg.jpg

The 5 year mean temp over the last century has a range of ~0.9 degree C. Given such a narrow range, what error bars would validate a climate prediction so it is improbable that the prediction is not just a 'lucky guess'? One might pick a number out of the air, maybe +/- 5% = +/- 0.045 degree C.

Perhaps a fairer way: Calc the 5 year separated deltas over the last century. For instance, the delta between 5 year averages for 1905 - 1900, 1906 - 1901, ... 2008 - 2003. Given actual historical 5 year deltas, it should be possible to calculate error bars E that would validate that a computer prediction has been correct within a p < 0.05.

To test yer confidence in current climate models: Pick your very most favoritest computer model. Calculate the 5 year Global Land-Ocean Temp anomaly five years hence in 2014 (so it doesn't overlap current measurements at all). I bet you $1000 that your computer model will be incorrect in predicting the 2014 5 year average to a p < 0.05. I pay you $1000 if the model is correct, and you pay me $1000 if the model is wrong.

If yer unwilling to take such a bet, then why would you be willing to spend WAY more of yer own money (in carbon tax etc) based on the model's predictions?

If you think it is too unfair to predict 2014, then does 2024 offer better odds of success? If you don't trust the model for 2024, then why have any credence for the model's 2100 prediction?

Hi Tony

Many good ideas were offered.

Inside the house, by all means get an SPL meter, look up OSHA recommendations for noise exposure versus time, and set your inside system accordingly. You would eventually get accustomed to that 'max level'.

Outside, possible options:

* Get a small FM Transmitter and listen with earbuds with an FM radio. Am guessing this would not be a welcome option, since it could as easily be solved with an iPod, which I think you already have .

* If you will be in some particular outside area for awhile (not hiking or moving around a lot), you could either drive a nice hefty portable speaker using an iPod or FM receiver. For open-country FM coverage past perhaps a half-mile, an FM transmitter would probably need to be on the wrong side of FCC regulations. Perhaps the generally least-expensive portable speaker would be a dangerously loud jumbo boom box. Portable mini-PA type speaker setups would be more expensive, and typically require more wiring hookups and such.

* Get some pretty-good-quality A/B speaker switches. You don't need solid platinum connectors with solid silver wire or whatever, but OTOH do you really want to risk expensive power amps to a $10 plastic switch? Get some middle-of-the-road 'working musician quality' PA speakers and mount em outside-- Maybe on the wall under the shelter of the porch would be the least carpentry.

Figure out some kind of weatherproof cover you can remove. They make special-made outdoor speakers, but you would pay more money for less performance with those.

Pro power amps are typically no more power than what you report on your current system, but they tend to be more robust and less likely to fry. I doubt you need new amps, but just be pretty careful with the ones you have. Accidental short-circuits on the speaker leads and such.

This will give you the EXACT SAME kind of sound you get from concerts. But still be careful of the volume. On second thought, you probably do not want them on the porch. Get the HF horns well above ear level away from the porch. To generate near-pain levels in the audience, if you get right up on a pro speaker it will definitely damage your hearing, and doesn't take very long.

IIRC you like metal, and am guessing that something not-expensive like some used 3 way Peavey speaker cabs (look in the music stores and pawnshops). There are better-sounding, but Peavey is made-in-usa and built to last. Many musicians are very snobby and think Peavey sucks, and so the used price on Peavey is often much lower than the true worth of the gear. That would be three-way with a 15" or 18" woofer, horn and tweeters. Peavey has also made many tough-as-nails 2 way systems with 15" woofer and large constant-directivity high-freq horn. The 2 way systems would be fine also. I personally prefer systems with JBL bullet or slot tweeters, but you have to pay a lot more for something like that, and dunno if you could notice a big difference playing back an AC/DC record.

As Jim W mentioned, speaker efficiency is the key. In pro speakers it is often measured as dB SPL, measured 1 meter away, feeding the speaker with 1 watt. A +3 dB increase is a doubling in power. A +6 dB increase is a quadrupling of power. It doubles power every time you ADD 3 dB.

So therefore if you trade in your 500 watt amp for a 1000 watt amp, you have increased the power +3 dB.

OK, if you buy a new speaker 3 dB more efficient, your 500 watt amp will be just as loud as a brand-new 1000 watt amp thru your old speakers.

Typical efficiency of home stereo speakers can be in the ballpark of 90 dB, 1 watt at 1 meter. Or lower. Typical efficiency of pro-sound-reinforcement speakers can be >= 102 dB, 1 watt at 1 meter. Some less-expensive pro speakers may be less, but I would not buy a pro speaker less than 100 dB 1 watt 1 meter. Very typically the inefficient cheap pro speakers coincidentally do not sound good.

If your old speakers are 90, and your new pro speakers are 102, then the pro speakers are 16 times louder (in power) given the same amp drive. 500 watts from the old speakers would only need 31.25 watts in the new speakers to get the same level. So if you buy a big pro speaker, look at the efficiency more than the power rating. If a pro speaker is only rated to handle 100 watts, that is not a bad thing if the speaker gets loud enough to HURT YOU with 20 watts.

The last 15 years I played music for a living, first used Etymotics 15 dB 'hifi' earplug attenuators for some years, then graduated to the 20 dB Etymotics earplugs. That was with rather quiet stage sound levels. Difficult to make money making music if yer deaf, and one's hearing falls off with age even in the best of circumstances. I wouldn't even think about going as a listener to a concert without my earplugs, much less running a drill or saw without earplugs and/or electronic earmuffs.

The first wakeup sign for me was when snare drums would be painful from 20 feet away. Think I avoided the worst of further damage by limiting further exposure, but most folk with pristine hearing won't experience pain from a snare drum at that distance.

http://www.ozyandmillie.org/d/20000827.html

I usually shoot at the pretty nice free range at Prentice Cooper state park which isn't far from the domicile.

A local fellow made a driving directions page with nice shots of the scenery along the way. I really enjoy the local scenery, but sometimes in pictures one notices things more than in day-to-day viewing of the same stuff.

http://www.mouseguns.com/prentice/prentice.htm

There is an indoor range close by, but I rarely go there. It is nicer outside, and free ain't bad either.

Being a suburban-american, I share the 'self-conscious' feeling you report at the idea of just wanderin around in the woods totin a gun, though it seemed a natural thing to do a long time ago when I lived in the country.

Lots of folks don't seem so self-conscious. On Signal Mountain is a small Federal civil war park. Walk awhile downhill into the woods below the bluff and you get to a little stream crossing at a valley that separates Signal Mountain from Suck Creek Mountain (atop which Prentice Cooper state park resides). If you walk another maybe 12 miles up hill you would eventually get to Prentice Cooper.

Anyway, for some reason at some time in the past some federal park ranger thought it would be a good idea to hike all the way down to that little stream with tools and sacks of concrete to erect a professionally-made official metal sign saying, "No Firearms". It isn't a brutal trail, but ain't a stroll either. A hiking stick isn't a bad idea for some of the rocky areas. I wouldn't relish toting sackcrete down there.

Anyway, of course the "No Firearms" sign is so full of bullet holes it looks like swiss cheese.

Am not saying it is either a good or bad thing. There is a tiny beautiful creek pond out in Soddy Daisy called Blue Hole. Bet there are thousands of 'Blue Holes' across the USA. It is a scenic walk to get there, and isn't a bad place to swim or jump off tall rocks if you are simultaneously foolish and brave. It may be mandatory to yell, "Hey ya'll, watch this!" before jumping.

Last couple of times I hiked out there, could hear folks plinking in the woods. There are plenty of woods out there. Plenty of space.

Made me paranoid that perhaps not all the natives are safe shooters plinking in safe directions. I don't recall hearing of anyone getting accidentally shot out there from a wayward round, but it is still something I started worrying about.

Tony Aguire said:

Obama manages to kick start the renewable energy market, resulting in Americans removing ourselves from the yoke of foreign oil interests. This will result in massive job growth in an industry that will grow by leaps and bounds. GDP will reflect this growth, as will the lifestyle of most Americans (except those heavily invested in oil). Americans will be able to focus more on the family than finances.
Obama manages to bring about a reform in health care management, improving the lives of those Americans without healthcare as well as reducing the burden on more well to do Americans due to un-insured Americans not going to doctors for catastrophic health problems .
The Republican party continues to isolate itself from the progressive, mainstream of society, eventually becoming extict. A new party of TRUE conservatives will emerge, balancing the overindugence of the left, allowing politics to actually do something for America other than create a farcical pathetic cat fight.
The Auto makers expand into other industries, namely, individual home electrical generation modules that will completely negate the need for power lines. This will bring to an end the lost time and resources from having to repair the grid when power outages occur. We will be able to better manage our carbon footprint individually, as well as use the moudules to charge our plug in hybrids. The power companies will then focus on hydrogen production that can be sold to consumers, ending our dependence on foreign oil.
Just a few of the things I hope to see...more to come
Sorry if i am to optimistic for some of you guys, after the last 8 years, its been pretty bad

Hi Tony

While I prefer your prediction to Fred B's, alas your prediction may only come to pass in that same alternate universe where Iraqis threw roses in front of our tanks, welcoming us as liberators as we rolled into Baghdad.

That same alternate universe where farmers of Afghanistan find better profit with crop other than poppies. Where Eisenhower's middle-east peace negotiations won lasting peace.

Where F. Buckminster Fuller's modular mass-manufactured housing made obsolete both homelessness and mobile home tornado magnets. Where Fuller's Dimaxion automobile was even more fabulously successful than his modular housing.

That wonderful alternate universe where Neville Chamberlain's enlightened accommodating diplomatic negotiation saved the world from war. The time-space dimension where WW I really was the War to End All Wars.

A question rather than answer-- Do prism diagonals sometimes have shorter optical paths than mirror diagonals, because of the refractive effect of the glass? Thought I read that somewhere, but maybe incorrect, or perhaps not significant enough effect to give you your few millimeters. Someone here likely knows.

You have been busy tonite!

Jack Day said:

Hey Jim,

Any chance we could lay off calling Obama "The idiot" for a few weeks? I thing everyone here understands your feelings in this area. 8)

Is 'yuppie dweeb' OK?

Greg Nowell said:

Y'all like to write tuff, right?

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/14/opinion/14rich.html?em

GN

Dunno, Greg. Maybe James W. Von Braun was influenced by BO's antisemitic mentor, Reverend Wright?