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Posts Made By: Patrick Keafer

August 23, 2019 10:56 PM Forum: Politics

The Chosen One

Posted By Patrick Keafer

Originally Posted by James Brown

Hi Greg, Darian:

I don't know how you two can be so optimistic.  It seems to me that Trump is likely to lose.  I know that the polls were wrong in 2016, and I recall that I sure was wrong with my predictions back then.  But.... it ought to be so easy for the D's to win.  Flipping Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania would do it, and that should not be impossible.  Unless the D's nominate a socialist in name or deed, I suppose.

If the economy does falter, I would think that a Trump win would be all but impossible.

Sure, the pollsters blew it last time, in part because so many Trump voters refused to answer polls or misled the pollsters.  Perhaps more importantly, Trump must have gotten some inconsistent voters to vote in the upper Midwest, and Clinton blew the turnout in these states big time.  Both of these occurrences skewed the models the pollsters rely upon.  I would expect the legit pollsters (Gallup, Quinnipiac, NBC/WSJ etc.) to be cautious about these effects next time, and make reasonable adjustments.  The legit pollsters do have some professional pride.

Jim

Jim,

Head to head polls at this point are useless, that's why.  You are correct in that the Dems could easily re-take some states Trump surprisingly won last cycle, but we won't know how likely that is until the Dems nominate their guy or gal and voters begin to weigh them against each other.  At this point both sides on this board are too optimistic.  

September 5, 2019 09:20 AM Forum: Politics

The (Latest) Texas Mass Shooting

Posted By Patrick Keafer

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman
Get rid of the AR-15s and the hi-capacity magazines. Universal background checks for all. And not the BS from Rich...

No need to ban them.  Make semi-auto rifles class 3 weapons like machine guns, improve the background check on those weapons to look for mental health flags, and add a 10% tax to the purchases that go to funds which help the victims and the families of mass shootings in the US.  What people don't realize is that by accepting no improvements in the screening process or mental health reporting, gun owners are headed down a path to a total ban.  The Walmart change of policy, while not significant in the number of guns or rounds it will no longer sell, is symbolic.  The tide has shifted in public opinion and politicians, even conservative ones, will change their minds as their corporate donors flee the legal vulnerability of being too gun friendly.

September 11, 2019 10:41 PM Forum: Politics

The Walrus Is Gone!

Posted By Patrick Keafer

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman
John Bolton bites it! He, along with a multitude of others, depart the TRUMP administration on less than amicable terms. 
Ah, yes, those distant echoes of TRUMP saying he's going to surround himself with the "best people"! It's like him saying we're going to have the biggest and the best health care insurance at the lowest cost. Or that perennial favorite of Greg, Mexico paid for the wall!!!


It is just another testament to how bad a person and manager Trump really is.  No one wants to work for him and those that do work for him end up leaving.  

November 5, 2020 04:46 AM Forum: Politics

Wow

Posted By Patrick Keafer

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

Yep, it was disgusting.  I was watching CBS because I don't have cable, however I heard the coverage was bad even on Fox.  

I was watching CBS and they would NOT call Florida for Trump even when he had a 3.5 point lead with 96%+ of the vote counted in that State.

At the point that everyone else had given Florida to Trump, they were still holding out.  Joe Biden needed fully 100% of the remaining votes to tie him and they were postulating scenarios that he could possibly win.

Fox did the same thing from what I'm told, they were hanging on to Florida by the skin of their teeth, Hoping Biden might win when it was obvious he lost it.

Then contrarily, with nearly 1 Million votes outstanding in AZ, Fox called the race for Biden. Now I don't know how they reconcile that inconsistency, perhaps they are mind readers.  

It looks like it will be at least a day, perhaps a few until we know the outcome.

I'm just wondering how many bags of ballots the Democrats will find in a closet as they did with Al Franken in Minnesota.

I put nothing past the Democrats.  

I'm thankful that Repubs held the Senate, as the purported Blue Wave never materialized.  

I know this much, polling is dead in this nation and so is the leftist, biased media who openly act as workers for the DNC.  

I watched Fox all night and the coverage was fine.  They were the first to predict several states and all of their predictions have held up so far.  It's called MATH.  Biden outperformed Clinton in the most populous county and the remaining votes are from that county and/or early voters, which have skewed Biden.

November 5, 2020 06:09 AM Forum: Politics

The Senate

Posted By Patrick Keafer

Jim,

Unfortunately he's probably toast.  I was looking forward to a slightly more diverse Republican Senate.  My guess would be the remaining votes are going to favor Biden substantially, unless twenty moderate sized suburban/rural counties took their time counting.      

November 5, 2020 06:17 AM Forum: Politics

Wow

Posted By Patrick Keafer

Originally Posted by James Brown

Hi Patrick:

Good to see you again.  Were you shocked at the early VA returns, or was it obvious to the residents that Fairfax etc. had yet to report?

Jim

Virginia is pretty solidly blue now so I wasn't surprised the press called it pretty early for former VP.  The electorate is right up the alley of a relatively moderate candidate like Biden.  There aren't enough "rust-belt" comparable voters in the state anymore and the numerous Republicans closer to the urban centers here are highly educated social moderates.  Even the DC exurbs have turned blue.  Democrats dominate state politics now similar to how its played out in your state as they hold every major office state office Virginia.

Unfortunately its going to stay that way as long as we nominate gubernatorial candidates by state convention.

November 6, 2020 07:17 AM Forum: Politics

The Senate

Posted By Patrick Keafer

Originally Posted by James Brown
According to the GA Secretary of State, Perdue's vote tally is now at 49.98%  There are 47277 ballots still out.  But it looks like a runoff for control of the Senate is in fact coming to Georgia.

Welp, it's Trump's fault.  Hopefully this will clean the scourge of Trumpism from the GOP.  Only he could have turned Georgia, Arizona, and Texas into competitive battlegrounds while losing every other part of the country with a population of more than 500.  Hes doing what no democrat could previously..ushering in the era of high taxes and government funded healthcare.  What an awful, awful President.  And we're going to pay the price for years to come.

November 6, 2020 09:42 AM Forum: Politics

The Senate

Posted By Patrick Keafer

Originally Posted by Brian McFarland
Makes me wonder how many Trump voters would like to change that vote after witnessing this behavior. Kanye is better behaved!

If they hadn't changed their vote already after what we've seen in the last couple of years they aren't going to change it for this.  The guy is a child.

November 6, 2020 02:26 PM Forum: Politics

The Senate

Posted By Patrick Keafer

Originally Posted by James Lacey


Another result of Trump and his enablers and surrogates profoundly politicizing mail-in voting is that he has to endure this slow, agonizing defeat and watch his early red-mirage of a lead fade away as that same mail-in voting is now counted. And friends, there is a lot of karma in that.

There's karma in it but this whole process reflects poorly on the US election system and undercuts it's perceived legitimacy.  If we do mass mail in voting again post pandemic I sure hope they move the post mark date back to where they were for absentee voting.  This whole dragging on is unacceptable.

November 6, 2020 02:27 PM Forum: Politics

The Senate

Posted By Patrick Keafer

Originally Posted by Russ Carroll


I only wish John McCain knew what a DICK Lindsey Graham is when he was alive.
I'm still shocked at the extent to which he sold out.