Posts Made By: Greg Shaffer

Originally Posted by Russ Carroll

Obama did not have the ceiling Trump has had from day one. Obama was YUGELY above Trump in popular support when he came into office.

Trump has GONE OUT OF HIS WAY to hate those that are not in his GOP.

Originally Posted by James Brown

Yep.  This is why I generally, personally, see Trump losing unless:

A) The D's nominate a socialist or near-socialist scold like Sanders or Warren, or
B) The D's so thoroughly overplay the impeachment that I's move to Trump in disgust.

But, I still think that it is the economy above all else, so sometimes I see Trump winning, particularly if he actually can make inroads with the African American vote.  I'm far less committal than James!

Jim

Originally Posted by James Brown

Greg, I disagree with your analysis.  Trump won the critical swing states by very thin margins.  The popular vote winner in each of these individual states gets all of the EC votes.  2016 was a very close race when you look at the totals in the tipping point states.  If HRC had not taken these swing states for granted, and otherwise been about the worst candidate possible, she would have won.

Consider an imaginary election where candidate A wins all 50 states by 1 vote only, per state.  The EC margin would be 538 to 0.  But each state was won by a single vote!   50 votes out of 130 million votes. It would be irrational in my view to call that imaginary result a "wide margin."  

Originally Posted by James Lacey

It's more like how a narcissistic sociopath lashes out with rage and contempt with they realize they cannot control the situation that is the source of their ire. They inevitably try to belittle others to make themselves appear superior. The letter is indeed a sad display and spectacle and typifies what we have seen from Trump many times. The mental health professionals call it to deny, attack, and reverse the role of victim and offender. It's all too standard behavior of mentally disturbed people like Trump. The truly amazing thing is that White House counsel even allowed this to happen. Trump must have been adamant and persistent about this course of action.

Originally Posted by James Lacey

You either don't understand the analogy or don't acknowledge that Trump won the rust-belt states by extremely razor-thin margins. Regardless of the electoral outcome, which by the way, ranked number 46 out of 58, Trump barely won in 2016.

Originally Posted by James Lacey

If you read that letter and all you see is a fiery response to his critics, then I don't know what to say. It's not sharply worded or describing things honestly without unpleasant details. Instead, it's just batsh!t insane crazy. When history looks back on the Trump presidency, I think one of the things that will be shocking is just how incompetent and unfit for the office he is. And this letter will be exhibit A.

Originally Posted by James Brown

Hi James:

Within your #4 lies the rub.    (Apologies to the Bard).  Gallup, who most people respect, is showing a 6 point uptick in Trump's popularity since the impeachment inquiry began.  https://news.gallup.com/poll/203207/trump-job-approval-weekly.aspx  See also 538: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
RCP average is about the same.

More than one polling outfit shows Trump polling with Blacks and Hispanics at historically high levels for an R.

Are these trends all pie-in-the-sky "malarkey?"  Maybe, but if these trends are real and they continue, it suggests a couple of things that Trump can and is doing to change the situation, in some instances with a little help from Pelosi and Schiff or other Ds:

1.  Continue to stoke, benefit from (and of course take credit for) a robust economy, whether one thinks this is deserved or not. 
2.  Continue to court the minority vote.
3.  Effectively cast himself as the victim of an unfounded impeachment.
4.  Be twice the beneficiary of historically, legendarily, horrible D candidates who run historically, legendarily, bad campaigns.

Trump does not have a lot of control over #4,  but he'll be hitting 1-3 and other factors hard as the campaign winds up.  If those approve/disapprove lines in the Gallup poll (or the nearly identical 538 or RCP poll averages) cross, look for some serious panicking on the left. 

Jim