Posts Made By: Darian Rachal

Originally Posted by Russ Carroll

Trump is 100% consistent about one thing: Never taking any responsibility for anything and ALWAYS having someone to blame. That is why he shirks his duty as president and lets governors fight this battle.

He's a POS and a coward.

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

Holy shit, look at those US numbers go up:
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

Unfortunately, so are the ones in Louisiana:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-orleans-area-has-worst-coronavirus-death-rate-in-u-s-11586008800 

Originally Posted by James Lacey

I've never disputed the fact that we don't know what the actual mortality rate is in the US. Keep in mind, however, the numerator in the mortality calculation has a certain degree of uncertainty as well. Even if the mortality rate is closer to 1%, that is still ten times deadlier than the seasonal flu. Couple that with the sheer number of people that will get the disease, even with extreme social mitigation, and it translates into a lot of dead people. The UofW IHME model is still predicting 100,000 deaths by June. That's in only two months. It could be as high as 180K or even as low as 40K based on their confidence intervals for an event that far out on the time horizon. Right now, a person is dying from COVID every 2.5 minutes in NY, and unfortunately, that is a disaster that is going to play out quite a few places still to come.

Originally Posted by James Lacey

I think NYC is not the last city that we will see under siege. Just about any large urban area is at risk. NYC is unique in the sense that it is dense and extremely cosmopolitan, which undoubtedly contributed to its problem. Still, any large urban area where there are lots of people is at risk for overwhelming their healthcare system. Look at it this way, NY (16,000), TX (7,000), FL (7,000), AL (6,000), and MI (4,000) are your 40,000 by themselves. Do you think that 45 other states can't add up to 60,000? Some states like AK are going to be minimal, but if the average is only 1,000 per state, we are at 85,000 in total. Being wrong, of course, will be welcome.

Originally Posted by James Lacey

Darian,

In NY, there have been more than 600 deaths a day. Someone in NY is dying of COVID 19 every 2.4 minutes. At that rate, they will quickly get to 16,000 deaths, actually in only three more weeks. For the US to get to 100,000 deaths, the UofW IHME model says we should have had 1,194 deaths in the US yesterday. We had 1,352.

FEMA just sent 85 more refrigerated trucks to NYC to serve as morgues. They are not doing this for anything other than a massive number of deaths from COVID.

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

What a hypocritical and nonsensical statement...For starters you compare the numbers of dead to the total of the US population and then you have the nerve to state, in your opinion, "all this picking at details is trivial". In fact, why stop there, Greg, why don't you compare the numbers of dead to the entire population on the planet? It'll definitely get that number even lower so you can post that one, too. Would anyone in their right mind care about that?
And, how about managing the infection rate? You can mitigate the latter through stay at home orders but EIGHT Republican governors refuse to do so. Trump said we're in a war against the corona virus but you don't go to war with 42 states, you need all 50 on board.The surgeon general just said this week is going to be our "Pearl Harbor moment", do you get that?

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

Darian, tell that to the surgeon general...

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

First, coming from the  surgeon general, I don't believe it's an "emotional statement"; it's a metaphor for what we're up against now. As far as you failing to see it, well, so be it...

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

Neither do young people like the ones who suddenly died and we don't know why as described here:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/05/health/young-people-dying-coronavirus-sanjay-gupta/index.html