Posts Made By: Brian McFarland

Originally Posted by James Lacey

You are an uninformed idiot, which is fun because you constantly act like only you have the correct information. The guy has been released on bail; it looks like he won't face any federal charges, and from what I have read, he has told Fox News that he is a registered Republican and Trump supporter and had no intent to harm anyone. He is also a first-class conspiracy theorist and even has a podcast called "Blood Money" that focuses on conspiracy theories. I'm pretty sure you and he would be fast friends, which is a sad commentary on the state of the Republican party today.

Originally Posted by James Brown

So, your psychosis also involves hallucinating typos where none exist?  I am so very sorry.

Originally Posted by Maurice Clark

As an aside, anybody observing comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS? Had some great viewing last night despite the bright Moon. Will post some images later. In the meantime, this is a great animation showing the comet's anti-tail.

https://spaceweathergallery2.com/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=216325

Originally Posted by James Lacey

Rich doesn't seem to get that the S& 500 alone does not reflect the whole market. I can tell you this: my portfolio is much better under Biden than Trump by a long shot, and I will not by choice go back to another failed Republican economic strategy based on Tariffs, tax cuts for the rich, and Trump's stupid deal with OPEC to cut oil production right before the pandemic hit.

Originally Posted by James Brown

Rich will be better off with a Harris win. Without a boogie man to irrationally rage against, his life, such as it is, would lose all remaining meaning and purpose.

Originally Posted by Jim Moscheck

Had a truly remarkable day. Went to the top of Mauna Kea which is the most sacred place in all of Hawaii. I swear I could feel my wife’s presence as we were gaining altitude. Our tour guide was awesome and Deb would have loved his spirit. He said we were lucky we had such a clear day, yesterday you couldn’t even see Mauna Kea and he even played island reggae music when he wasn’t talking, which Deb would have also loved. We started out at Rainbow Falls. We went through 10 of the 11 micro climates on the way up. Not to mention seeing all of the great telescopes up there. 

It was the highlight of all the other amazing highlights of my trip and in the last port of call to boot. ❤️

Now the long voyage across the rest of the Pacific and we’ll be back in Seattle next Thursday morning. 

The trip was a healing experience for me in many ways. Still miss my wife like crazy, but I’m learning to deal with the grief and loneliness. I even think she may have had something to do with the beautiful weather. It can be windy and cold up there but I was in shorts and a t shirt and very comfortable. Sure wish I could have gone back up tonight to do some observing, but that will have to wait for my return under a moonless sky. And I will return as I liked it so much here.

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

Really?  You thought that?  Are you morons, actually that moronic?   LOL

Originally Posted by James Lacey

So, from what I have read, no, McDonald's did not say she never worked there. You and Trump are making a leap from McDonald's, saying there are no records, to saying she never worked there. McDonald's not having records for an employee in any single franchise from the early 80s is not unusual or an aberration, and McDonald's said the same thing in a memo to its workers that has also been obtained by journalists.

Besides, if you cared about lies and fake acting, you would have given up on Trump a long time ago. So, spare us the faux outrage.

Originally Posted by James Brown

I don't buy this above quote.  Do you?  While the race is going to be extremely close, the polling averages and major polling models show Trump creeping slightly ahead.  Still well within the MOE for the swing states.  

The only way Harris wins "comfortably" is a significant polling error in her favor.  That outcome seems unlikely to me given the polls under-polled Trump in 2016 and 2020.  I know they are implementing fixes this time, but I sure do not anticipate a large error in Harris's favor, specifically a large over-polling of Trump.   Jim

p.s.  Nate Silver has Trump ahead in the EC race 55 to 45, his biggest lead since September.  The average in the betting markets is 60/40 in Trump's favor.  538 has the EC race at 54/46 - which is ominous for Harris fans because they have been the model most favorable to Harris this cycle.  The RCP averages of polls have Trump slightly ahead in all 7 swing states.  It is possible to predict a Harris win, but to predict that she wins comfortably?  That is unlikely.   Unless one considers Harris winning all swing states by less than 1% or so "comfortable."  This is the second most likely outcome from Silver's model, after Trump winning all 7 swing states of course.

Originally Posted by James Brown

Hi Brian:  

I can think of two answers and you are not going to like one.  First, it is possible that the polls are systemically wrong in favor of Trump.  This happened in 2016 when the polls were systemically wrong in favor of Clinton. 

The second option, that you won't like, is that your bubble is too tight.  You interface with a highly educated class of people, and that is Harris's wheelhouse.  How many people do you know who listen to Joe Rogan's podcast?  I personally had not heard of it before last week.  But it apparently has more devoted fans than Fox News, CNN, the NYT and the Washington Post put together.

I think Harris has lost enough votes in the non-college educated, black and Latino demographics to lose the race.  I think the polls are substantially correct, but close enough that this is functionally a toss up.  There are 54 red balls and 46 blue balls in the electoral college bag, and you get to pick one.  J