Posts Made By: Brian McFarland

Originally Posted by Russ Carroll

I'm getting a little tired of being ask why I've changed politically over time - I haven't. Donald Trump is a repudiation of Ronald Reagan, not his successor. I'm still with Ronnie.

Originally Posted by James Brown

I agree.  

Is the Democratic Party still the party of JFK or even Bill Clinton?   I say this not to engage in a childish squabble, but rather to note that the political parties and of course each faction of the press plus social media bubbles have all fostered the most dangerous social fracture and hostile tribalism since the civil war.   This is the existential crisis of our times.   Trumpism is a symptom, or a result of the fracture, not the cause.   Symptoms on the left include irrational antisemitism on campus and full throated support for censorship, as I tried to explore in my most recent thread.  There are many other examples, left and right.

Let me put it this way.   If society was not broken Trump would not be the darling of a majority of modern Rs and if society were not broken the left would not celebrate entitled semi-adults chanting “from the river to the sea” while threatening classmates.

Originally Posted by James Brown

That makes sense, and I know my example was wanting.   That said the, rank and file MAGA voter so despised by the press and reviled by the elites is not running for office either.

Originally Posted by James Brown

For me the choice is between a disqualifyingly incompetent and immoral fool, and a reasonably competent California lefty who proposes really bad policy like price fixing and seems to be ok with censorship and quite possibly wants to pack the Supreme Court to pass laws and policies to expand administrative agencie's power that I believe to be detrimental to the country and unconstitutional under current interpretation.   Kinda sucky choice.

Originally Posted by James Brown

No worries, especially in view the original context of your thread i.e. "The Rs have left us and are no longer recognizable".  I have gotten way out in left field with my comments.  It is fun though.  At least I didn't play the "righteous indignation" card against you!  

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

Agreed; I still expect Trump to win.

Originally Posted by James Brown

Hi Brian:

The best polling suggests Trump is more popular than when he left office.  Not in California, I imagine, but in the swing states.  Trump probably would have won in '20, but for the pandemic.  Also, the last 4 years have been tough on middle and low income families.  The race is a 50/50 toss up now, which is a significant improvement from when Biden was the nominee.   I'm with Rod on this one.  I think Trump will win.  Trump has outperformed the polling in every race he has run, so a 50/50 tossup now likely favors Trump on election day.   Plenty of time for Harris to make a move, and maybe her debate dominance will pay off.  I personally think she won the debate easily but missed an opportunity to connect with moderate voters in the swing states.   

Also, as detailed by Nate Silver, the electoral college favors Trump.  Harris could easily win the "popular vote" by 1 or 2% and still lose the election. 

The good analysis here might be behind a paywall, I pay a nominal fee to see Silver's full analysis.  I think some of it is public though.  Not sure how much:   https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

Silver has the race for winning the Electoral College and election at about 60/40 in favor of Trump, which is effectively a tie. Jim

Originally Posted by James Brown

I'm an optimist too!  I'll send you a six pack of local microbrew if Harris wins.   If Trump wins you might need to send me something stronger... 

Originally Posted by Jim Moscheck

Hello from somewhere in the Bering Sea. 

https://apple.news/AWQUR6-4MT_mPyss-Vrdv_g

Both candidates strategy was very public before the debate. 

Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.) said.

“It wasn’t a hidden strategy. [The Harris campaign] were literally telling people, ‘Hey, we’re gonna go out there and we’re gonna try to get under Donald Trump’s skin. This is the strategy. We’re gonna get under his skin, and we’re gonna let Donald be Donald,’” the lawmaker said….”

And

“The Donald Trump strategy was also very public. ‘We’re gonna make sure we don’t let her get under our skin,’” Moskowitz went on. “And literally, 11 minutes in, she goes, ‘crowd size,’ and he goes: ‘Viktor Orbán. They’re eating puppies and cats.’”

I’d say the Harris campaign has lots of sound bites for this ads, but it they ran them now they’d never get Trump to agree to another debate.

Originally Posted by David Cotterell

One drunk or mentally ill woman sitting on a sidewalk with a dead cat that she killed. Is that all that Vance had?  Even if she had been Haitian, that's ONE incident. Even if she had it with fava beans and a nice Chianti it is still only  ONE incident.   How does Vance get from that to tarring and feathering an entire ethnic group? "OMG those imma-grunts is gonna eat all our pets.  Let's deport them.."

Oh, wait, she wasn't Haitian anyway.  Never mind.  And she wasn't in Springfield.   

So NO incident.  

Except for the one woman who overheard her poolboy saying he had heard it from his cousin that there was a rumour from a truck driver  in Springfield who was at a BBQ where someone thought they saw a cat on the grill and a Haitian standing nearby.  Vance ran with this?????

Boggles the mind.

Dave