Handicap This Race Now

Two years ago I could envision no way for Bush to lose this November...

Last month my gut told me that Bush was toast. There is just way too much hostility arising from the war in Iraq. There are too many Republicans upset with Bush and apparently no Democrats supporting him...

Now, as a Bush supporter, I am becoming cautiously optimistic again. The fact that Bush got a convention bounce and Kerry did not seems to indicate that more of the undecided middle will choose to give Bush another shot than I would have believed possible a month ago. Also Kerry seems to have lost a lot of traction. He appears to me to have failed to define a reason to vote for him other than "he isn't Bush."

So now my personal guess is that Bush wins in a squeaker....

We all should recognize that our guess as to the likely outcome of this horse race is biased by both our own desires and by the stuff we read and hear. I am curious who you think owns the momentum now, and is likely to win in November.

There is no need to discuss in this thread why one guy should or must win for the salvation of humanity etc. I think it would be fun just to get a diverse range of opinions on how people feel the race is going, from their unique perspectives, at this point in time.

- Jim -

Bush will probably win, practically by default -- between Hurricane Ivan and the Iraq coverage, Kerry can barely make the news headlines anymore.

Bush has the momentum right now. He would win if the election were held today.

The debates may change this of course, but I don't see that happening.

You're right about Kerry needing something other than "I'm not Bush".

I don't know if anyone else saw it but on 'The Daily Show' during the DNC they did a little background thing on Kerry and the gist of it was he was the Democratic candidate least like Bush and that's why he won the nomination.

Just like 2000, this election will come down to the Electoral College, so I have been watching that closer than the national polls. My favorite sites are

http://www.electoral-vote.com/ (leans left, has the most user-friendly display)
http://www.geocities.com/hedgehogreport/bushkerry2004state.html (leans right)
http://unfutz.blogspot.com/ (compilation of electoral college prediction)

The interesting thing, is that even with Bush enjoying a significant (outside the margin of error) lead, Kerry still had a lead in almost half the electoral college predictions. That was yesterday. Today new polls in FL (Bush +1), WI (Bush +4), PA (Bush +1), and OH (Bush +12) have given Bush a sizable lead. But notice that all of these are well within the margin of error (except for the Ohio poll which was conducted by the GOP polling firm Strategic Vision and is completely inconsistent with other polls conducted at the same time.)

My current predictions:

The Big three (OH, PA, FL)
Ohio goes Bush, Pa goes Kerry, FL should be a coin flip but Jeb is doing a hell of a job trying to influence the vote (http://www.boston.com/news/politics/president/articles/2004/09/14/fla_official_allows_nader_onto_ballot/)

Kerry's to lose:
Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, NH, Maine (throw in OR, WA, MN, NM if you want)

Bush's to lose:
Colorado, Missouri, Arkansas, West Virginia, Virginia, Tennessee (I'd bet Bush loses one of these: CO, MO, AR)

Nevada is a coin flip.

There are also a few major wild cards:
1) Voter turnout is expected to be much bigger this year, therefore the polling firms' definitions of "likely voter" are out the window
2) The Colorado referandum to divide electoral votes proportionatly would effectively take CO off the table. This was a big deal a month ago (when if would have given Kerry four EVs out of nowhere), but the last three polls have shown CO split down the middle, so this could turn out to be a non-factor.
3) Word is that oversees voters are registering in record numbers this year. There are about 5 million american over 18 overseas, and nobody has any idea what their demographics are (only 8% of those are military). These voters are not represented in any of the polls.
4) Tradition is that undecided voters vote for the challenger over the incumbent by a 2 to 1 margin. But are there any undecided voters this year?

My handicap? I still have high hopes for Kerry. This race is neck-and-neck, and we still have the debates to go.

Again in sticking with the horse racing metaphor, I think CBS just got caught doping their horse. 8)